1344: Avocados | Skeptical Sunday

1344: Avocados | Skeptical Sunday

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Jordan Harbinger: [00:00:00] Welcome to Skeptical Sunday. I'm your host, Jordan Harbinger. Today, I'm here with Skeptical Sunday co-host, writer, and researcher Jessica Wynn. On The Jordan Harbinger Show, we decode the stories, secrets, and skills of the world's most fascinating people and turn their wisdom into practical advice that you can use to impact your own life and those around you.

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Just visit jordanharbinger.com/start or search for us in your Spotify app to get started Today on the show, we're talking about avocados. That's right, the fruit that ruins brunch prices, clogs Instagram feeds, and somehow convinces us that it's normal to pay $15 for toast. It's just that good. But behind the memes and the guacamole bowls, there's a darker story.

When you order that side of avocado, it's less likely farm to table and more likely cartel to cafe. To help find out what that additional $2 avocado option is really paying for, is writer and researcher Jessica Wynn. Hey, Jess. So I love avocados. Are you going to tell me I shouldn't be eating them? Because we've already...

You know, we've ruined, like, coffee and quite a few other crowd favorites.

Jessica Wynn: I know. Well, nutritionally, avocados are terrific, but this isn't about health benefits. A lot happens before that avocado ends up on your toast.

Jordan Harbinger: Before you ruin everyone's guacamole, give me the basics. [00:02:00] Where do avocados actually come from?

Jessica Wynn: So avocado roots go back at least 12,000 years. Archeological evidence shows indigenous Mesoamerican communities managed avocado orchards centuries before Europeans arrived. The Aztecs cultivated them and called them āhuacatl, which literally translates to testicle.

Jordan Harbinger: All right. Um, there's so many jokes in there.

Jessica Wynn: You take a

Jordan Harbinger: close look. Yeah. Yeah, so all these, all these years we've been eating testicle toast. Right. That would never have gone as vi- Well, actually, it probably... Yeah. No, it would've gone viral. That would've done well.

Jessica Wynn: It kind of sounds like a threat. Like, "You're not just toast. You're testicle toast." You're testicle toast.

But ... But the name aside, the fruit was highly valued. Spanish conquistadors wrote home about seeing piles of avocados in the markets of Tenochtitlan, which is Mexico City today. From there, avocados spread through the Caribbean and into colonial agriculture. By the 19th century, they reached [00:03:00] the US through Florida.

Jordan Harbinger: So some guy tried this wrinkly green fruit named after his balls and thought, like, "America needs this in bulk."

Jessica Wynn: Pretty much. And that guy was Dr. Henry Perrine, an amateur horticulturist who planted the first avocado trees in Florida in 1833. His grafting techniques laid the groundwork for commercial production later, but after his death in 1840, the cultivation, it stalled.

Nobody really picked it up until Cuban seeds reintroduced the fruit back into Florida in the early 1900s.

Jordan Harbinger: So Florida was our first supplier. Some things never change, I guess?

Jessica Wynn: Right, right. Until California's industry took off. The first California trees were planted in 1850, but the real breakthrough came in 1871 when Judge R.B.

Ord, he brought seedlings from central Mexico to Santa Barbara. And those flourished and launched [00:04:00] California's avocado industry. By the early 1900s, multiple varieties were being cultivated, but the most important was the Fuerte, brought from Mexico in 1911. But in 1913, there was this devastating freeze that wiped out almost every tree except the Fuerte, and that survival made it the dominant variety for decades.

Jordan Harbinger: The Fuerte is still really popular. I had no idea that they're such- th- those are some tough avocados.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, I know. And they were expensive. In 1905, avocados sold for 30 to 50 cents apiece when the average worker made about 22 cents an hour. So eating one was like buying a luxury item.

Jordan Harbinger: Ah, so it was always bougie.

Yeah. Again, some things never change. It's kind of funny, is it? I didn't realize that.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. But, and the total game changer came from Rudolph Haas. He was a mailman in Los Angeles, [00:05:00] and he bought a small grove in the 1920s. I guess mailmen were livin'- livin' large back then, but-

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, man. Like, huh. I, I just, I walk around delivering letters and look at my estate.

Jessica Wynn: Look at my... Yes, look at my groves. Um, but he grafted a single tree, and that became the Hass avocado. It was creamier, nuttier, easier to ship. It was more durable, and it could hang on the tree longer. So he patented it in 1935, and today 95% of avocados worldwide are Hass.

Jordan Harbinger: You know, now that I think about it, my mailman in Ann Arbor, Michigan did grow his own weed.

So- There you go ... maybe it's sort of a common side hustle for mailmen to be part-time horticulturalists, if you can call it that. Uh, yeah, they're

Jessica Wynn: wa- they're outside all day. That's right. They love gardening. Yeah.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, that's right. America's favorite fruit comes from a SoCal mailman. That, man... I just thought avocados were kind of more exotic somehow.

You know? They... I thought they would be imported [00:06:00] all the time, and I didn't think Rudolph Hass- kind of boring. ... LA mailman. I mean, there's nothing wrong with being a mailman in LA. I'm just saying, like, I didn't expect that to be the genesis of our avocado obsession.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. And Hass became the global standard.

His Hass variety, like I said, it could hang on the tree longer without spoiling, so its flavor was richer than those bigger, you know, the bright green Florida avocados, and they were just easier to ship. So this is all why most avocados you buy today look and taste the same, no matter where you are in the world.

Jordan Harbinger: They have that also in common with testicles. So while Hass was out there... Let that sink in. So while Hass was out there grafting his miracle tree, the industry itself started organizing.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. And in, in 1915, California growers formed the California Aguacate Association, and their big concern was avoiding the mistakes that citrus farmers had made and educating Americans about this strange new [00:07:00] fruit.

So they even debated on the name aguacate. Is, should it be aguacate? Some people called it alligator pears. But they actually held a vote, and they voted on avocado.

Jordan Harbinger: I feel like alligator pear was kind of a missed opportunity.

Jessica Wynn: I know. That's such a great name. It

Jordan Harbinger: is.

Jessica Wynn: But there's actually a lot of restaurants by that name these days- Sure

so it's not completely lost. And it was the term used in Florida and Jamaica before 1915. But the name was standardized when the associations and marketers finally settled on avocado because they thought it would sell better.

Jordan Harbinger: Well, did they split test it? I don't know. One mailman's hobby, and now it's all over my Instagram feed.

Yeah. Such a crazy popular food, especially for a green food. You know, you think, like, green stuff, not that interesting. Maybe that's why it's successful. It's like something green that you actually want to eat.

Jessica Wynn: That is delicious, yeah. And then, you know, in 2013, at the height of the avocado craze, Instagram was getting 3 [00:08:00] million new photos of avocado toast every single day.

Hashtags like #avocadolove and #avocadoporn, it just turned this humble fruit into, like, a cultural icon.

Jordan Harbinger: Yikes. Don't search avocado porn outside of Instagram. I feel like that could go sideways. So this is basically food OnlyFans. That's fun. What's the pr- what's the problem then?

Jessica Wynn: Well, behind all the fun and hashtags, there's a dark spot.

So the boom made avocados so profitable that drug cartels got involved. And today, most Hass avocados actually come from Mexico, and some of those same cartels control the trade.

Jordan Harbinger: Wait, cartels are connected to guacamole?

Jessica Wynn: They are. It's just the reality of globalization. So avocado imports were banned in the US until 1997, and when NAFTA opened the US border [00:09:00] to Mexican avocados, they just flooded in.

But only Michoacán, Mexico qualified because it's the only state that met USDA sanitary standards. But production exploded. Michoacán avocados poured in, and Americans had year-round supply for the first time. So between '97 and 2021, avocado output grew over 200%, and the industry's value skyrocketed more than 7,000%.

Jordan Harbinger: That's less like agriculture and more like cryptocurrency or cocaine or something like that.

Jessica Wynn: It was a gold rush.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah.

Jessica Wynn: Wow. You know, farmers' profits in Mexico jumped from two and a half pesos per kilo to 80 pesos. I mean-

Jordan Harbinger: Damn ...

Jessica Wynn: that kind of money drew not only new farmers but also the attention of drug cartels.

Jordan Harbinger: So Clinton opens trade, and the cartels say, "Thanks. We'll take it from here," [00:10:00] basically.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. Right. And the cartels, they operate like multinational corporations. So they slide into new markets, they exploit weak institutions, and they use violence as a business tool.

Jordan Harbinger: Right.

Jessica Wynn: So when US policy cracked down on narco trafficking, cartels just diversified, and avocados were safer than drugs and nearly as profitable.

Jordan Harbinger: That is a very different Scarface movie. Michelle Pfeiffer in the jacuzzi, guacamole smeared all over her face.

Jessica Wynn: Oh God. I would, I would like to think she could pull that off.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, a little bit on the nose, you know? Just like d- little, little dangler. I would hate to be supporting drug cartels by consuming avocados.

Maybe I should stop buying cocaine. I don't know. What do you think, that would balance everything out?

Jessica Wynn: You mean that just fixes the problem, you're happy? That's

Jordan Harbinger: right, yeah.

Jessica Wynn: You and your blow. I don't know. It might be just as bad as you and your green. I'm not sure.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. "I don't smuggle cocaine anymore. I smuggle that green gold."

Jessica Wynn: Oh, gross. [00:11:00] But so Los Zetas were the first cartel to extort producers in the late '90s. Today it's the Jalisco New Generation cartel, and there have been several in between. So I'm not exactly sure how cartel territory works, but I do know the cartels developed branding strategies, controlling which fruit left Michoacán, ensuring every crate was taxed.

Jordan Harbinger: Nobody saw that one coming from deregulated trade. So the war on drugs pushed cartels into avocados. Wow. I'm guessing no one pictured that ending with extortion rackets in Michoacán and, and other places.

Jessica Wynn: Definitely not. But Michoacán quickly became the center of avocado production, and the same drug cartels that once trafficked all your cocaine- Mm-hmm

they saw a new opportunity. And these cartels aren't addicted to drugs. They're addicted to the power, the money. So who cares what they're actually trafficking?

Jordan Harbinger: [00:12:00] Right.

Jessica Wynn: And so substitute any product you want. Cartels treat violence as a form of power, not just a means to money, but just an end in itself. And avocados are part of a broader trend economists call narco agriculture, where cartels exploit these legal crops just like they once exploited cocaine or heroin.

Jordan Harbinger: Labubus, heroin, avocado. As long as I'm making a profit, eh? Right, right. So the commodity is now legal. That's kind of impressive for a change, right? They just go into legal stu- I mean, I guess they're going into it in an i- illegal way, but.

Jessica Wynn: They could be upstanding farmers, but I guess that's boring, you know?

Sure. And this pays really well because they know how to control the market. And by the mid 2000s, cartels demanded farmers pay protection fees. So packers and exporters are shaken down. Trucks get taxed at roadblocks. Cartels clear pine forests, then legalize the land through bribery. [00:13:00] Corruption and intimidation just permeate every level of the supply chain.

Jordan Harbinger: And what, if you don't pay, you get a bad Yelp review written in bullets, I guess?

Jessica Wynn: I mean, yeah. I mean, refusal to pay the cartels often means kidnapping, assault, or worse.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. Sh- so every time Americans dip into guac at a Super Bowl party, Michoacán sees a spike in homicides. Damn, that, this is crazy.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. I mean, that might not be an exaggeration.

So farmers describe waking up to death threats carved into their avocado trees, or cartel members knocking on their door demanding, quote-unquote, "rent" for the land that their family has farmed for generations.

Jordan Harbinger: So if you're a farmer in Michoacán, what happens if you just say, "Screw it, I'm outta here"?

Jessica Wynn: Well, uh, that's exactly what a lot of people do.

So entire indigenous groups have been forced off their land by cartels. Families leave because it's too dangerous. One small avocado grower told reporters he had to sell his orchards [00:14:00] and move after refusing to pay. Others don't get that chance. They're kidnapped or killed. Locals call them blood avocados.

Jordan Harbinger: Blood avocados sounds like something from a marketing pitch meeting just gone very wrong. Yikes.

Jessica Wynn: I know. Well, but it is like a blood diamond in some ways. Avocados look beautiful and harmless to the consumer, but hide these stories of violence, extortion, and human suffering. You know, with diamonds, it was rebel militants in West Africa.

With avocados, it's cartels in Mexico. It's like different commodities, same mechanics.

Jordan Harbinger: Well, nobody ever mentions cartel violence when it comes to avocados. They just complain when they're not perfectly ripe or whatever.

Jessica Wynn: That's the problem. The violence is invisible to the consumer. This is like when we discussed bananas in episode number 1125, and we talked about coffee in episode 1185.

It's just the further away from home our food comes, the less [00:15:00] chance we are thinking of its origins and impact, which is ironic because the avocado boom has become another push factor for migration. So families who farmed corn or beans, they get caught in the crossfire of cartel taxes, land grabs, and fights over water.

And when their orchards are stolen or their water runs out, they leave. And reports show this is a direct line between US avocado demand and migration pressures at our border.

Jordan Harbinger: How can I think about my food that way? The irony is staggering. Our demand fuels the displacement that sends people north, and it's kind of a, a loop or a cycle.

And somehow despite all of that, this industry, it keeps on growing, yeah?

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, that's the paradox. I mean, normally organized crime chokes business, but in Michoacán, avocado production expanded alongside the violence. So this US obsession with the super fruit fueled [00:16:00] demand no matter what. And between 2016 and 2021, as avocado exports soared, the homicide rate in Michoacán more than doubled.

Farmers, journalists, and activists were all targeted. So there's clear evidence the Mexican avocado market's exponential growth has been accompanied by these rising levels of violence from the avocado mafia.

Jordan Harbinger: The avocado mafia sounds like something my kids would watch on

Jessica Wynn: YouTube. Yeah, cute little- Yeah

animated avocados.

Jordan Harbinger: Exactly.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, not, not that cute, though. I mean, and it, and it's not just killings. Farmers have been kidnapped, tortured, intimidated, journalists and activists silenced. And once cartels realized how lucrative avocados were, they began treating them like any other controlled market. And the people who suffered most are the legal producers, their profits [00:17:00] just siphoned off by cartels.

Jordan Harbinger: Hold on. So let's talk specifics. How does this actually work? How do cartels have the ability to continue this extortion racket for s- so long?

Jessica Wynn: It's because it's working. Okay. So US imports, they smoothed out the volatility. Michoacán became the avocado capital of the world, producing a third of global supply.

That's about two and a half billion pounds of avocados per year.

Jordan Harbinger: Wow. With all this violence and cartel taxed shipments, shouldn't avocados be ridiculously expensive? Shouldn't they be, like, 20 bucks each?

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. I mean, the violence is baked into the price. Okay. So the American consumer benefits from cheap avocados precisely because the risks and costs are pushed on to the farmers and workers in Mexico.

That's why e- economists call it a perverse system. The bloodier it gets down there, the more stable and affordable it looks up here.

Jordan Harbinger: We interrupt this [00:18:00] regularly scheduled moral crisis to remind you that not everything green is tainted by violence. This ad break right here, completely cartel-free. No middlemen with machetes, no extortion taxes, just us, you, and the slow realization that brunch might be bloodier than Breaking Bad.

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Now, back to Skeptical Sunday So the next time I see a, a product of Mexico sticker on avocados, what it really means is approved by the cartel? Pass the chips, I'm depressed over here.

Jessica Wynn: I know, I know. And groups like Los Caballeros Templarios [00:21:00] and Los Viagras made avocado extortion a core business model. So in 2019, USDA inspectors were in Michoacán to oversee exports to the US And after canceling certification of an avocado farm, the 60 inspectors were robbed at gunpoint by the cartel called Los Viagras.

Jordan Harbinger: Los Viagras? That's the actual name of the gang? That, why is that not scary?

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. It it is, and it, it's spelled like Viagra. They styled their hair straight up with gel- Ah ... hence the name. Seriously, their hair has boners or whatever.

Jordan Harbinger: It's just not a scary gang rep. Like, "Oh, no, the hair boners are coming."

Jessica Wynn: I know.

But they're deadly serious. But

Jordan Harbinger: how did the USDA respond to this assault of their inspectors? What did we do here?

Jessica Wynn: We, or they, wrote a strongly worded letter and published it.

Jordan Harbinger: The pen is mightier than the avocado.

Jessica Wynn: [00:22:00] Yeah, I don't think so. But Los Viagras and their rival cartel, Jalisco, have violent clashes over broader issues with cartel activity, but it often affects the avocado industry.

So when the letter threatened to kill the region's most profitable industry, it didn't really matter, and significant security incidents are often reported, including the assault and kidnapping of, uh, two USDA inspectors in June of 2024 while actively inspecting avocados. And all the US did in response was suspend inspections for a week, but then they resumed.

Jordan Harbinger: That's crazy, and I assume it's because it hurts distributors domestically, consumers domestically, so they don't want to halt the avocado trade.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, and they only give little slaps on the wrist. And in 2022, inspections were halted after a US inspector received death threats that also targeted his family, [00:23:00] but the inspections come back.

They always continue.

Jordan Harbinger: I just wouldn't have thought it was that dangerous to work for the USDA. I thought the most dangerous thing they did was go to slaughterhouses, which are probably really gross and possibly also dangerous. But what exactly do they do besides that to put themselves at such risk? It, it, it just...

You would think inspecting avocados would be, like, more chill.

Jessica Wynn: The chillest. I guess not. I know. Yeah. Yeah, and it's not. And every single avocado that enters the United States has to be certified by inspectors from the US Department of Agriculture, and these inspectors are on the ground in Michoacán and other avocado regions.

Jordan Harbinger: Guacamole gatekeepers.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. But their job's limited, so their mandate is pest and disease prevention. They can reject a shipment if they find just one fruit fly, but they have no authority to block an avocado that's tied to illegal land or cartel extortion.

Jordan Harbinger: It's kind of like they're the TSA of fruit.

Jessica Wynn: Pretty much, and in, in 2024, [00:24:00] after another round of threats, the US actually handed inspection authority back to the Mexican government.

Jordan Harbinger: Oh, that's a great idea. "Hey, they threatened us. Eh, just let them do it

Jessica Wynn: now." "Oh, okay. Then we'll just leave." Maybe they had trouble getting inspectors down there, I don't know.

Mm-hmm. But critics warned that, "Hey, this is going to weaken oversight," because now the people responsible for policing exports are the same ones vulnerable to cartel intimidation. But that's what's happening as of today.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, this is like saying, "Hey, we can't fight this drug war. We're going to let the Mexican police do it."

And it's like, you mean the guys that literally help smuggle drugs for the cartels because otherwise their whole family will get killed? Yeah, great idea.

Jessica Wynn: It's the same.

Jordan Harbinger: Yes, this is insane. So I... This is not an improvement for the consumer. Are any trade agreements that we have in place doing any better?

Jessica Wynn: Well, NAFTA, which is now known as the USMCA, United States Mexico Canada Agreement, it failed to build [00:25:00] strong enforcement mechanisms against the cartels. So agreements like these are designed to facilitate trade, not regulate the violence or corruption behind it.

Jordan Harbinger: So the system is built to protect us from pests, not to protect Mexican farmers, for example.

Right,

Jessica Wynn: not to protect anyone involved. Yeah. The human rights cost is enormous. So workers get assaulted, families are displaced, inspectors harassed, and activists are silenced.

Jordan Harbinger: Mexico's already one of the deadliest countries for journalists from what I know.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, for sure. And some journalists who try to cover these blood avocados were killed in February 2021.

So there was a Spanish journalist and his cameraman, and they were ambushed and killed while filming a documentary about the illegal avocado trade.

Jordan Harbinger: Dang, so they were murdered for trying to tell this story, basically the one we're telling right now.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. So-

Jordan Harbinger: Cool ...

Jessica Wynn: stay inside.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah.

Jessica Wynn: Um, but it's not isolated.

Just last October, two more journalists [00:26:00] reporting on blood avocados were killed in separate incidents in 24 hours. So covering avocados in Mexico, it's life-threatening.

Jordan Harbinger: Yikes. Sh- I mean, should we be worried here at Skeptical Sunday? Because this, uh, that, that's terrible.

Jessica Wynn: I think we're okay. I, just let's not advertise this in, when we go to Mexico.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. Wow. That's really sad.

Jessica Wynn: I know. But covering cartel extortion and corruption tied to avocados, it puts reporters directly in the line of fire. So local journalists in Michoacán are constantly threatened into silence. Some newspapers simply don't cover cartel activity anymore because it's just too dangerous.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, censorship by murder, and we don't hear about it because the very people who would tell us are being killed for trying to tell us.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, exactly. And consumers abroad see avocados as this clean, healthy, and Instagrammable- Yeah ... thing because the violent reality, it's literally [00:27:00] hidden at the source.

Jordan Harbinger: We basically just see the brunch side of the story, and the real stories can't be told.

Do we know what it's like for the people who actually grow the fruit, the farmers? I mean, I have no idea what farming avocados entails.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, it's brutal. I mean, in Michoacán, the cartels don't just skim profits. They control land, they're displacing indigenous communities, and they sometimes force people to work orchards at gunpoint.

So farmers live in constant fear, and for many small farmers it's just unbearable. You know, some communities even formed armed self-defense groups, the autodefensas, to protect their orchards.

Jordan Harbinger: So we're talking about farmers, mom, moms and dads literally picking up rifles to defend their avocado orchards from the drug cartels so they, so that they're not enslaved by them.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. Yeah. And because the government can't or won't protect them, some towns fight back. So local communities have literally taken up arms to defend their [00:28:00] forests, water, and themselves. When cartels and big avocado interests try to illegally encroach on land, militias try to defend that land.

Jordan Harbinger: Has that made a difference at all?

Jessica Wynn: In Cheran, Mexico, the entire community rose up in 2011. They kicked out the cartels and the corrupt officials who protected them. They had to set up barricades, had armed patrols, and governed themselves. They banned commercial avocado planting in communal forests. They started reforestation and water filtration systems.

But it's really dangerous for them. It's one of the few places in Michoacán where the cartels don't run the avocado trade, but they're on constantly on alert, you know?

Jordan Harbinger: Sure, yeah. That's a tough town. It... This is crazy. This is like the Wild West. There's one enclave where the cartels are like, "Ah, it's too dangerous," because they actually fight back, and they just enslave everyone else.

But yeah, they're kind of maybe waiting for [00:29:00] their opportunity to slide back in there and scare everybody and kill a bunch of people. That's just nuts.

Jessica Wynn: It is, and they're just under constant threat of fires, shootouts, turf wars over their land and water. Cherán's an exception, though. In some other towns, militias manage to drive the cartels out for a while, but it rarely lasts.

And most of these autodefensas, they start as self-defense groups, but over time, some get corrupted or even morphed into cartels themselves. It's this just endless cycle of violence.

Jordan Harbinger: Right. Imagine your hometown turning into a vigilante war zone over fruit. What the heck, man? I

Jessica Wynn: know. I know. And the exploitation doesn't stop at violence.

You know, even outside cartel areas, avocado labor is seasonal, and it's unstable. So workers deal with low pay, irregular hours, and almost no bargaining power. In some places, wages are so [00:30:00] low they can't afford basic food costs. And when workers try to organize, companies often block their right to unionize.

Jordan Harbinger: So the people picking our avocados can't even afford a side of guac themselves. Yeah. That's just nuts. That sucks, man. It's easy to picture an avocado farm. You know, it's a place of sunshine and trees and people lovingly hand-massaging guacamole into existence, but it's like a s- slave labor. It's like coffee, but worse.

Jessica Wynn: I mean, in California, workers are protected, and they have access to shade and sanitation and safety gear, but it is hard work with long hours n- no matter where you're doing it.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah.

Jessica Wynn: In Mexico and Central America, it's a different story because of the cartels. Even child labor is still common in many regions, and often basic needs like clean drinking water and bathrooms are missing.

Jordan Harbinger: That is not the brand image the avocado industry is going for. It's a fruit-based crime thriller. But avocados weren't always this popular, were they? I mean, h- I, I feel like [00:31:00] in my lifetime things really started to get amped up.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, it was decades of strategic marketing. So California Grower Associations w- later was called the California Avocado Commission, they invested heavily in advertising, and they pushed the idea that avocados weren't fatty junk, but full of healthy fats and vitamins.

And for the record, avocados also have saturated fats, so this reputation of it's a healthy fat, it's really a lot of good marketing. I mean, yes, they have uns- unsaturated fats, too, but it's not this perfect side dish, you know? So low-fat diets made Americans fear anything with fat, but the industry funded studies and PR campaigns to highlight just the healthy fats of avocados.

Jordan Harbinger: Selling science, so they rebranded from suspiciously oily fruit to, you know, heart-healthy heroes.

Jessica Wynn: Right. Yeah. I mean, PR firms got involved, and they rolled [00:32:00] out mascots like Mr. Ripe Guy- ... this cool California avocado dude with sunglasses, and they even staged contests to find Ms. Ripe. In 1995, they really put out single California avocado personal ads.

Do you remember this?

Jordan Harbinger: So like a personal ad in the, the dating ads in newspapers, and it was like single California avocado- Yeah, like in the back of the paper ... looking for-

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. Absolutely. Wow. How quirky. I don't remember those ads at all because, maybe because I

Jordan Harbinger: didn't

grow up in California, but it, we did have the California Raisins, and they would sing and dance, like oldies or whatever.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. The Mr. Ripe Guy mascot, he had the exact same vibe, but I guess maybe he didn't really take off like the Raisins did.

Jordan Harbinger: He didn't have a hit record, yeah.

Jessica Wynn: I know, yeah. He, maybe he wasn't a good guitar player or something, but I mean...

And they also marketed versatility, so avocados in salads, in sandwiches, in dips, you know. They tied the fruit to culture with promotions around [00:33:00] Cinco de Mayo. And the turning point in avocado popularity was when guacamole got tied to football culture and the Super Bowl. Suddenly, there were recipe contests, and guac was this game day staple, and all those campaigns made avocados feel like part of an American tradition.

Jordan Harbinger: It worked, man. Guacamole is basically our... It's like a required food group at every party, especially Super Bowls and stuff like that.

Jessica Wynn: I know. And now we're hooked. By 2003, the Hass Avocado Board was created to fund research and nationwide promotions. That's why avocados became one of the most successfully marketed foods of the last century, even shadowed by the destruction of people and land.

Jordan Harbinger: Is the industry really also destroying the land, though?

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, it is. It is. Deforestation is staggering. So between 2001 and 2018, Michoacán lost [00:34:00] 700,000 acres. Whoa. Which that's about 40,000 acres each year.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah.

Jessica Wynn: And 80% of avocado orchards were planted illegally in previously native forests that were later legalized through cartel corruption.

So it's just deforestation on a massive scale.

Jordan Harbinger: And that's all avocado farming specifically?

Jessica Wynn: Yes, just avocado farming.

Jordan Harbinger: Wow.

Jessica Wynn: And in Michoacán- So what they do is forests are cleared illegally, then that land is converted to avocado orchards without government authorization. So the deforestation, it- it's stealth.

It's hidden under the guise of what they call land use change.

Jordan Harbinger: Is there more to it than just trees coming down so different trees can go up, though? I mean, it sucks, but is it, isn't it just, like, replacing one tree with another?

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. I mean, that would be nice, but it's much more. So when forests in Michoacan or Jalisco or wherever are cleared for avocado [00:35:00] orchards, it's not just the trees that disappear.

You lose biodiversity.

Jordan Harbinger: Sure. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah.

Jessica Wynn: And that region is, it's critical habitat for migratory birds, even monarch butterflies on their annual journey, and pollinators that local farming depends on. So once the forest is gone, those ecosystems collapse.

Jordan Harbinger: I see. So our extra avocado on our burritos is, is bulldozing out monarchs.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah.

Jordan Harbinger: Uh, insert joke about how that's the butterfly effect. I mean- I mean, that's really awful, though, because- It is ... so they're... Yeah, this is, like, what happens in the Amazon, where you have this beautiful rainforest, but people are like, "Yeah, but I need places for my cows, because otherwise I'm going to be poor."

And so they burn it, and then the cows graze, and then they're like, "Uh, I actually need more land now." So there's just constantly burning, slashing and burning rainforest.

Jessica Wynn: Right. In some cases, they do actually burn them out. Farmers and cartels are accused of doing exactly that, deliberately setting forest fires, and then the land gets [00:36:00] classified as degraded from fire, and then it can legally be reclassified for agriculture.

So that loophole turns arson into a business strategy.

Jordan Harbinger: Oh, I see. That's insane. So you commit arson, you basically get a break on buying your land.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah.

Jordan Harbinger: This kind of reminds me of a joke I heard the other day. So two retired businessmen meet at a beach resort, and the first guy says, "I had a hotel and it burned down, and I, rather than rebuilding, I just took the insurance money and I retired here."

And the other guy says, "Yeah, similar story with me. A hurricane came, flooded my beachfront resort, and just washed the whole thing away. And instead of rebuilding that, I took the insurance money and I retired here." And the first guy goes, "Huh, how do you start a hurricane?" Oh, God.

Jessica Wynn: That's hilarious. I mean, that's not far from the truth, though, right?

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. At some point, I've got to ask, where is the... I mean, this is probably a dumb question, but where's the Mexican government in all this? Who, who's in charge?

Jessica Wynn: I mean, in many cases, the cartels [00:37:00] are. So Mexican officials at the local level, like, like mayors, police chiefs, even military units, are all complicit.

Some are bribed to look the other way. Others are just directly involved. And corruption doesn't seem to be the exception. It's just part of the system.

Jordan Harbinger: So my avocados are in the hands of who's got the most guns and cash.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. They've got you by the alligator pears, Jordan.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah.

Jessica Wynn: And and the US knows this, though.

Jordan Harbinger: While you're rethinking brunch and googling ethical guacamole, let's pause for something less morally complicated. Because unlike the avocado trade, this show isn't funded by narcos or deforestation, just regular schmoes with Wi-Fi and questionable spending habits. We'll be right back. This episode is sponsored in part by ZipRecruiter.

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Jordan Harbinger: This episode is also sponsored by FlyKitt. We're getting ready for a trip to Taiwan with both kids. I'm excited but also bracing myself because we're tired on a normal day. Add in a 13-hour flight, a 13-hour time change, and two kids who don't care [00:39:00] what time zone we're in, and jet lag is not just annoying, it's an emergency.

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So does a label that says sustainably sourced Mexican avocado, does that mean anything? Because I feel like I see those everywhere.

Jessica Wynn: The legal framework for those kind of labels is weak. You know, the enforcement is spotty, and the cartels exploit that vacuum of labeling. The orchards go in, the forests go out, and often nobody's held accountable.

Jordan Harbinger: I'm guessing avocado orchards are thirsty, because those fruits, th- and they hold a lot of water. They're oily, all that.

Jessica Wynn: Oh, yeah, yeah. It takes about 300 liters of water to produce just two or three avocados.

Jordan Harbinger: Oh my gosh.

Jessica Wynn: I know. So aquifers are drained, rivers dry up, pesticides contaminate drinking water for many communities.

And not just in Mexico. In Chile's Petorca region, rivers literally vanished because of avocado irrigation, forcing communities to rely on water that's actually trucked in while the orchards get [00:41:00] priority irrigation.

Jordan Harbinger: Oh, good. So our avocado habit is also contributing to drought, environmental damage, and environmental injustice.

So families can't shower or have a glass of water, but we've got great toast pics on Insta.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, pretty much. I mean, Peru is another case. So avocado production there expanded massively for export markets, often with little oversight, leading to similar water shortages and land conflicts. And in Kenya, avocado farming for export has created deforestation and disputes over land ownership So it's the same dynamics, high demand, weak regulation, and vulnerable communities just repeated globally.

Jordan Harbinger: So all over the world, the pattern is the same.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. I mean, it works. People are making money off it, and no one is really speaking out for those affected. So indigenous populations have been pushed off their land. The local standards of living decline as water disappears and [00:42:00] forests fall. And at the same time, rising temperatures and drought make avocado farming less stable.

So you have this vicious cycle of orchards contributing to climate stress, while also being threatened by it. And yet, demand keeps rising. From 2017 to 2021, Mexican exports nearly quadrupled.

Jordan Harbinger: Okay, but somebody's trying to fix this, right, in Mexico or the US? I

Jessica Wynn: mean, there are efforts. So the USMCA trade agreement has a rapid response mechanism that lets workers file complaints about labor violations, and some have already used it against big farms.

But these power structures, you know, let's be honest, they are not easily taken down.

Jordan Harbinger: Can't we just grow them somewhere else, you know, without drug cartels involved? I don't know, California, Florida. I mean, we probably have our own cartels, but what do I know?

Jessica Wynn: No, I mean, we do grow them here, but we simply just don't have the space [00:43:00] to produce nearly enough domestically.

US demand is too massive. So today, 77% of the world's avocados are imported into the United States. Like, we love avocados.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah,

Jessica Wynn: sounds like it. And Mexico supplies the bulk. So from avocado toast to Taco Tuesday, America's hunger for the superfood, it just drives the entire system. And the EU joins in a bit, too.

From 2017 to 2021 there, Mexican exports to Europe also nearly quadrupled.

Jordan Harbinger: So America and Europe get guac. Mexico gets cartels, violence, deforestation.

Jessica Wynn: Yes, and that is the imbalance. Some farmers do benefit, but much of the wealth, it just all goes to the cartels.

Jordan Harbinger: What about avocados listed as fair trade?

I've seen those labels. Are those real? Do they help? Does that help at all?

Jessica Wynn: It can, but only to a point, because it's just complicated. [00:44:00] For farmers in certified cooperatives, fair trade provides stability. They get a guaranteed minimum price, which protects them from wild swings in the market, and on top of that, they get a fair trade premium that goes into a community fund.

Farmers then can vote on how to use that money, and villages have used it to build schools, fund healthcare, even train people in different income streams that are untouched by cartels, like beekeeping.

Jordan Harbinger: Okay. That seems like a positive.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, sure. I mean, it has the potential to empower farmers and give them collective bargaining power, but that's if you can get certified So certification also enforces environmental standards like better water management, responsible pesticide use, and sometimes investments in green farming alternatives.

Jordan Harbinger: And the catch is? Because that all sounds great, but I'm guessing there's a catch.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, I mean, there's several issues. [00:45:00] So certification is expensive and bureaucratic, if you can get it, and the smallest farmers, the ones that are most vulnerable to cartels, they're usually shut out. That means fair trade only reaches a fraction of producers, and even when farmers do qualify, the premiums often aren't enough to make any real lasting change.

Jordan Harbinger: Okay, so even the good guys are outnumbered by the scale of the industry.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, right. And most avocados just aren't certified at all. So some companies still use words like sustainable while their supply chains are linked to deforestation or cartels, and this kind of greenwashing is common because the avocado market is just that massive.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. We did an episode on greenwashing. That was episode 599. So fair trade helps, but it's not green magic.

Jessica Wynn: Not at all. You know, other models are emerging, though. There are direct trade relationships with cooperatives, and there [00:46:00] are boutique certifications like Rainforest Alliance and a new ProForest avocado label that's designed specifically to combat illegal logging.

Jordan Harbinger: Sounds good, but is any of this actually working? I

Jessica Wynn: mean, it's a start. Those organizations are so small, though. ProForest certification was launched specifically in response to deforestation just in Mexico, but it only certifies growers who haven't cleared any forest for avocado orchards. So the idea is to rebuild consumer trust and separate responsible producers from cartel-tied production, but without enforcement and consumer pressure, it won't scale fast enough.

Jordan Harbinger: Okay, so we, the brunch eaters, still have some power.

Jessica Wynn: I guess, but it would take massive awareness campaigns all over to get people to choose certified products and push retailers for transparency.

Jordan Harbinger: Right.

Jessica Wynn: Consumer pressure can move an industry, but it [00:47:00] has to be a really big coordinated effort. And governments have to enforce regulations, so consumer advocacy groups have taken companies to court for misleading labels.

Jordan Harbinger: I guess it's probably hard to sue a drug cartel, though, right? Yeah.

Jessica Wynn: I mean, I would imagine. And in 2024, the Organic Consumers Association actually sued major importers like Calavo Mission and Fresh Del Monte for greenwashing. They were advertising Mexican avocados as sustainable even though the supply chains were directly tied to deforestation, human rights abuses, and cartel extortion.

But that's still tied up in the courts.

Jordan Harbinger: So the cartels aren't just wrecking cash flow, they're wrecking communities, infrastructure, jobs, and education, everything. At this point, the only thing the labels reliably tell you is that this came from Mexico.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. I mean, it does feel like everything on our shelves and menus is just [00:48:00] marketing spin sometimes.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. It sounds like avocados are going to keep being green gold for cartels then.

Jessica Wynn: Unfortunately, I think so. There are some trade reforms, but they're easy to get around. The EU has regulations banning imports tied to deforestation, but that gets complicated. I think demand will just continue to fuel destruction.

So the avocado is like a perfect case study in globalization's hidden costs.

Jordan Harbinger: And the actual costs for avocados has always been high.

Jessica Wynn: Always. Avocado prices do fluctuate significantly and are most linked to the Mexican avocado supply. So some typical things like weather, drought, heat waves, things that cause lower production can affect cost, but it's really just the sheer demand the world has for avocados that will keep the price pretty steady.

Jordan Harbinger: Will that always be the case? You know, 10 years from now, will we still have to pay two bucks for a side or whatever, or three? Or w- is climate [00:49:00] change going to lower production to the point where we can't even get them? You know, like, how we're not going to have sushi in 50 years, basically, unless it's grown in a lab.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, right. I mean, California's already struggling with low production, so the state's avocado production is projected to shrink drastically. Some growers are just pulling out trees altogether because of worsening droughts and wildfires and all the water rationing problems in California.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, it's a Chinatown.

So without California, it's just Mexico and a lot of cartel tax.

Jessica Wynn: Unless something changes. I mean, researchers are experimenting. People aren't going to like this, but researchers are experimenting with alternatives like lab-grown or synthetic avocados. Food scientists are trying to replicate avocado texture and flavor using peas, oil, and natural flavoring.

Jordan Harbinger: Mm, fake guacamole. That's, that's a different kind of organized crime right there.

Jessica Wynn: I know. I know. Even talking about it kind of makes me nauseous, but- Yeah ... [00:50:00] it's an option. I mean, some people are pushing substitute crops. So chayote squash can mimic the creaminess. Hummus from chickpeas gives you the protein and healthy fats.

Even pea or sunflower seed spreads can fill the gap.

Jordan Harbinger: Sure, until we've got chickpea cartels and pea kingpins. Those, I mean, let's just hope those foods get some decent management and a better, and a good PR team.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. I don't know if the Super Bowl party's ready for Pea spread, but

Jordan Harbinger: Guacamole, yeah.

Jessica Wynn: Right, right.

Guacamole, that's good. I mean, that's the challenge, is consumer behavior. So the US is addicted to avocados, and even if awareness of cartel violence and environmental destruction grows, some people may switch to alternatives, but realistically, most consumers don't want to give up their guac.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, you're probably right.

So what do we do? How can we live without avocados?

Jessica Wynn: [00:51:00] Avocados are sold as a superfood, and they have nutritious qualities, but they're easily replaced. Okay. We don't need avocados as a staple. Yes, avocados are high in folate, vitamin K, but you can get that from lentils, broccoli, sunflower seeds, and olive oil.

Jordan Harbinger: All of that sounds like it would be so good with some avocado on top, right?

Jessica Wynn: I know, I know. That'd be a good salad. Unfortunately, once cartels realized how profitable farming could be, they locked into a lot of our favorite foods, not just avocados. So they extort nearly every legal market: lime growers, strawberry farmers, papaya orchards.

They've muscled into timber, even iron ore and oil. So if something makes money, cartels want a cut.

Jordan Harbinger: Eating is a crime scene. It's like cartels are basically running a whole narco grocery aisle. That's nuts.

Jessica Wynn: I know. And I mean, if there's money to be made, the cartels tax it. It's like a parallel government.

So [00:52:00] whatever you buy in the supermarket, a cartel pr- Probably took a cut of that

Jordan Harbinger: So my margarita's dirty too. Limes, tequila, guac, it's a whole narco happy hour. The whole don't buy avocados, you're funding cartels argument, that kind of misses the point. Because, you know, people will say like, "Oh, we're, we're blaming the American drug users for the drug problems and the drug cartels."

And it's like, okay, so are you also blaming the global demand for avocados for your drug cartels? Because they're also operating there too. So even if you cut everything out of your life, it just doesn't fit the systemic corruption that's down there in Mexico. And it, it's... This seems to be twofold, individuals versus corporations, and the conflicting values between countries trading with each other.

And yeah.

Jessica Wynn: The hypocrisy is-

Jordan Harbinger: Yes ...

Jessica Wynn: is wild, for sure. I mean, it's just classic capitalism. So, hey, it's up to you to recycle the plastic bottles that corporations make billions of each year. It's up to you not to get hooked on the highly addictive [00:53:00] foods and drugs that are shoved in your face every day that are terrible for you, but, you know.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. Again, and people will, like, blame. They'll be like, "Oh, if you guys didn't use drugs, we wouldn't have drug cartels." This is- clearly, that's not true, because- That's not true. And by that logic, you couldn't buy anything. Corruption and exploitation are baked into global supply chains, in some places way more than others.

So it's not about consumer choices, it's about weak, defective governance and cultural issues. So yeah, don't tell me to boycott guacamole when the real problem goes untouched.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah, I know. And performative ethics, even if it works occasionally, is just trending outrage until the next thing comes along, and there's always the next thing.

So avocados are just one example of a booming business coexisting with corruption and abuse. The supply chain isn't just farms and trucks. It's cartels running protection rackets, illegal logging, land grabs, bribes, human rights [00:54:00] abuses, taxation of every crate of food. And if the world cares about climate and environmental crime, Mexico's avocado industry should be the test case for whether the food industry can actually reform itself.

So the lesson here is bigger than guacamole. It's about how fragile our global supply chains are when the governance fails.

Jordan Harbinger: I see. The irony is brutal. Yeah. The symbol of healthy food is also a symbol of violence and environmental collapse.

Jessica Wynn: Yeah. I mean, so the question isn't whether you can live without avocados, it's whether we can build food systems that aren't so vulnerable to all of this bad stuff.

I just want to say here, I really want to apologize to everyone for this smear because I also love my avocados.

Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, man. Well, on that note, thank you, Jess. Way to ruin a perfectly good meal. And thank you all for listening. Topic suggestions for future episodes of [00:55:00] Skeptical Sunday to me Jordan@jordanharbinger.com.

Advertisers, deals, discount codes, ways to support the show at jordanharbinger.com/deals. I'm @JordanHarbinger on Twitter and Instagram. You can also connect with me on LinkedIn. You can find Jessica on her multiple substacks, Between the Lines and Where Shadows Linger. We'll link to those in the show notes as well.

This show is created in association with PodcastOne. My team is Jen Harbinger, Jase Sanderson, Tadas Sidlauskas, Robert Fogarty, Ian Baird, and Gabriel Mizrahi. Our advice and opinions are our own. I might be a lawyer, but I'm not your lawyer. Also, we try to get these episodes as right as we can. Not everything is gospel, even if it is fact-checked, so consult a professional before applying anything you hear on the show, especially if it's about your health and wellbeing.

And remember, we rise by lifting others. Share the show with those you love. If you found this episode useful, please share it with somebody else who could use a good dose of the skepticism and knowledge that we doled out today. In the meantime, I hope you apply what you hear on the show so you can live what you learn, and we'll see [00:56:00] you next time.

Remember when Google actually gave you useful results, Facebook felt fun, and Amazon didn't feel like a scam-filled maze?

Cory Doctorow explains how tech platforms slowly trap users, squeeze businesses, and eventually cannibalize themselves, a process he calls enshittification.

JHS Trailer: It's not just that companies become too big to fail and we bail them out, although that's happening. It's not just they become too big to jail, but they become too big to care.

These companies, they eliminated the competition and, you know, they and their advisors, you know, the economists who said monopolies are good and efficient, they're today just absolved of all responsibility. You tell an economist the 40 years you spent briefing for the efficiency of monopolies are the reason that we're all getting screwed today, and they're like, "How can you be so sure my pro-monopoly policies are in some way connected to the monopolies that are destroying our lives?"

The enshittogenic policy environment is what created this. We warned them at the time. They did it anyway. So you have Amazon that has done some admirable things, as has Facebook, right? Facebook was fun. Google was a great [00:57:00] search engine. Apple made very, uh, beautiful and well-behaved devices, right? But they want you to think that there is no way you could get the benefit without enduring the costs, that those costs are, are intrinsic.

So I think we have to lay the blame at the feet of people who worked for us, who were warned at the time that their pet theories were going to create this enshitta scene where everything turns to shit, who did it anyway, and who today a lot of these guys are collecting six-figure consulting fees and polishing their fake Nobel Prizes in economics and being lauded as great figures of history.

Like, we have to remember that it's them, not just so that we can take it out of their hide, but so that we can make sure that in the future, no one like them ever gets their hands near the levers of power. They do evil for the same reason your dog licks its balls, because they can.

Jordan Harbinger: To hear why the internet keeps getting worse, check out episode 1280 of The Jordan Harbinger Show.