982: Israel vs. Iran | Out of the Loop

982: Israel vs. Iran | Out of the Loop

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[00:01:18] To get started today, Ryan Macbeth, back on the show, he's an open source intelligence analyst and a Newsmax contributor. I know Newsmax. Come on man. Anyway, today is outta the loop on Israel versus Iran. There have been strikes from Israel against Iranian officers in Syria. Then Iran fires, drones back, and then Israel fires missiles back.

[00:01:37] What's going on with all this? Is this the beginning of World War iii? Can Iran destroy Israel? Is Israel gonna start a full blown conflict with Iran? We're gonna get into all this here on this out of the loop episode with Ryan Macbeth. Alright, here we go.

[00:01:56] Ryan, thanks for coming back on the show. It seems like we're doing World War III speed run, but I, I don't know. I'm here to have you talk me off the ledge. I guess

[00:02:03] Ryan McBeth: I actually, I, I am actually of the opinion that World War III started in 2014. With the invasion of Ukraine from

[00:02:10] Jordan Harbinger: Russia with the invasion of Crimea?

[00:02:11] Yeah, that's absolutely correct. Ah, so it's sort of like slow lead up actually. I don't know how much you know about World War ii. I don't know enough to say, is this normal speed or is this ultra slow? 'cause it's, you know, when you think of a war starting layman like me are kinda like, oh, something surprising happens like Pearl Harbor.

[00:02:29] And then you just join the fray and it's like, well, actually, I don't know how World War War II started. Was it over a decade and change? Because it might've been,

[00:02:38] Ryan McBeth: I could say as the Nazis rose to power, or perhaps in Poland was invaded, which I believe was in 1939. Might have to check my math on that one, but you can say that when we think of World War ii, we go, oh, well, world War ii, it started in 1941.

[00:02:53] Well, for us. Mm-Hmm. Europe had been fighting it for two whole years beforehand. Right.

[00:02:58] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. That's not a super long time. If you're saying that World War III started with the invasion of creme in 2014. Right. So we're going on a decade now, so we're sort of. Slowly warming up that flywheel of destruction.

[00:03:11] Ryan McBeth: That is certainly possible. Yes.

[00:03:13] Jordan Harbinger: Great. Well, on that cheerful note, we don't have time to go over the whole World War III prequel, but I think let's focus on Iran and Israel because when Iran threatened Israel during the, the initial stages of the GA invasion, I was like, okay, are they gonna do anything?

[00:03:27] Everybody kind of said, eh, proxies will do something. And Hezbollah was like, we're gonna destroy Israel. And then they launched some rockets and then Israel was like, no, we're just gonna take out some of your stuff. And they were like, oh, we're not really gonna do anything. And Iran was kind of like, I'm over here in the corner not paying attention to this.

[00:03:43] I know we talked a big game, but we kind of don't really wanna do this. It was just sort of for PR and we're, we're gonna sit this one out. And everyone was like, a lot of the simps online, the sort of warhawk, like everybody destroy Israel, those kinds of folks, they were pretty disappointed that Iran didn't do anything.

[00:03:59] And then Israel's just blowing up embassies. Uh, take us, let's start from there. 'cause that's kind of where people start wondering what the heck is going on. Because I think that went under the radar for a lot of people and now there's drones and missiles going in both directions.

[00:04:13] Ryan McBeth: Absolutely. So take it back even further.

[00:04:17] One of the reasons I know I say Iran instead of Iran. Yeah, I'm sorry. I'm from Jersey. It's really difficult for me to say Iran. But to go all the way back really, Iran wants to dominate the Middle East. They're actually creating something that they kind of call the Shia Crescent. And the whole idea behind this is that Iran can project power.

[00:04:38] 'cause Iran doesn't really view Israel as its enemy or the US as its enemy. It looks at Saudi Arabia and uh, Sunni Islam as the real enemy. Iran wants to project power. By using proxies because it can't build aircraft carriers, it can't build huge amphibious landing ships. It can't build an expeditionary army, but it can create a separate religious military.

[00:05:05] And if you want, we can talk about the KDS Forest and the IRGC. Yeah. And they can use that to kind of fate descent and project power softly and with, with a lot less expense associated with fighting. Okay. So I believe what happened on October 7th was that Hamas got Iran's help with this attack. And the intent was that mah Debas, who is I believe 88 years old, Alma Muha boss, runs the West Bank.

[00:05:36] And, uh, there hasn't been an election in the West Bank since, I believe, uh, 2006. Now, the whole idea is that when you're 88 years old, not a lot left on the actuarial tables, right? Mm-Hmm. So he's gonna die one day. And I'm sure Hamas would love to walk into the West Bank and declare themselves the rulers of the West Bank.

[00:05:56] So they attack Israel, they grab a bunch of hostages, and then hopefully, at least to them, over the next three to five years, they released one hostage, two hostages. Israel tries to negotiate. Instead Israel hit them with a sledgehammer to the face. Now, all of the help that Iran was giving Hamas was very useful in this attack, but now I'm sure Hamas was like, Hey, Iran, are you gonna actually help us out?

[00:06:24] I was like, yeah, you know, I, I, we really don't care that much about you guys and would really rather remain a country. We don't want to get into a long, protracted war that we can't afford. Mm-Hmm. So I think that's kind of the, the mentality that I ran is in right now. So there was a meeting in Syria, in Damascus, and a number of IRGC commanders were there.

[00:06:49] Now the IRGC is a Yeah. Fascinating organization because if you think about it, imagine America's a mostly Christian country, right? Imagine if America had an army and then we had right next to it a Christian army. And an army just full of religious zealots. And we didn't just have an army, we also had an air force, we had a navy force, we had, uh, special forces, we had a strategic rocket forces, and they were all religious forces.

[00:07:19] That's kind of what the IRGC is. Think of it as the religious wing of Iran's army and Iran's regular army called the Artes. They have a mirror image where they actually don't get as good of equipment and as good training as the IRGC does.

[00:07:34] Jordan Harbinger: So Iranian army, yeah, regular army is like. Protecting Iran's borders and doing whatever armies maybe do in real co regular countries.

[00:07:44] Almost said real countries. Regular countries, and the IRGC, which I think stands for Iran Revolutionary Guard Council or something like that. Absolutely. You're absolutely correct.

[00:07:54] Jen Harbinger: Yeah.

[00:07:54] Jordan Harbinger: They are like, they're the favorite child. They're not protecting the people of Iran. They're protecting the AYAs and the government and the regime of Iran.

[00:08:03] That's how it was explained to me by an Iranian recently on this very show, I wanna say. She was kinda like, eh, there's an army like we have, which supposedly protects the people in the country. And then there's an army that's just for like the government and the elites and the Ayatollahs especially.

[00:08:18] Ryan McBeth: That's absolutely correct. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, uh, I think it's also called Sea Paul, they have a ground force in Navy. They tend to get the better equipment. And in addition to that, they also have the beiji militia, just sort of like a religious militia that can be called up. Think of it like a religious national guard that can be called up for ride controlled duties.

[00:08:37] And they have the kdz force, which you may have heard of before. Kotz is, uh, like a Persian word for Jerusalem. And, uh, think of the KDS as like a combination of the CIA and special forces, and they specialize in assassination training. Irregulars, they trained Bosnian Muslims, SSAM Soleimani, who was killed in a drone strike under the Trump administration.

[00:09:00] He was a general in the kotz force. He. So these, uh, 16, uh, KDS officers were meeting at a compound at the, uh, Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. And somebody destroyed that embassy, right? The somebody is the question, 'cause Israel never claimed responsibility, but then again, I'm pretty sure it wasn't butt swan.

[00:09:24] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, it wasn't a gas leak. Right. It probably wasn't a gas leak either, by the way, earlier, I think I said IRGC is Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council. That was not correct. By the way. It's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Core. I. So I don't remember what I said earlier, but I meant to say Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

[00:09:40] Regardless of what I said earlier, just in case people think I have my head in my Kester, these episodes are supposed to clarify things for people, Ryan, and I'm, I'm just muddying the waters. It's not going to get better when I do stuff like

[00:09:50] Ryan McBeth: that. We are dealing with the Middle East and Iran. We're dealing with, I know two countries that don't necessarily talk about what happened next.

[00:09:57] Jordan Harbinger: No, but the least I can do is get the freaking acronyms right. So Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC. Correct. So that's the Islamic Army of Iran. And the Kdz force is the CIA, uh, special Forces Wing. It seems like they don't really need all these, but what do I know? We have multiple branches of our military too.

[00:10:15] It just seems like they have a lot of parallel branches for whatever reason.

[00:10:19] Ryan McBeth: You're absolutely correct. And that is necessary to them because these parallel branches can get better funding and they are filled with the kind of people who want to go on these missions, whereas Artesh. It's an army. Every male has to serve time.

[00:10:37] They're drafted. I, I've spoken with guys who said, look, I did artes for, uh, two years. I fired seven rounds out of a rifle.

[00:10:44] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah.

[00:10:45] Ryan McBeth: Other than that, we did absolutely nothing. It's almost like by having this separate religious military, they can direct funding toward that, and the artes kind of becomes a way to keep young men busy.

[00:10:57] Mm-Hmm. For two years. So they're not rioting in the streets about the conditions that they're actually under. And then after those two years, then they can go to college and start their lives.

[00:11:07] Jordan Harbinger: Brian, this is more geopolitical, so feel free to pass on this one, but I feel like I often see things like this in authoritarian regimes, right?

[00:11:15] There's like this army, and then there's this parallel army, and then there's this other sort of mini parallel guard force. And you see that in authoritarian nations. And I wonder if it has to do with, well, if there's an army here and they wanted to take over the country, we've got another army here that's sort of more loyal to these folks and another one over here.

[00:11:32] So they're, they're busy fighting for funding and power. If one tries to take over, we've got another one we can sort of bounce off of them. Whereas the United States, we don't have to worry about the Air Force taking over the White House and the Senate. It's not a thing we sit here at night over.

[00:11:48] Ryan McBeth: You're absolutely correct.

[00:11:49] I think there was a a, uh, a book called How to Be a Dictator. Mm. Which kind of talked about this. How Yeah. Essentially dictators, they need to please like three groups of people, the political class, the military, and the police forces. If you have two organizations that are constantly competing with each other, maybe they won't join together and go after you.

[00:12:10] ?: Yeah.

[00:12:10] Ryan McBeth: A good example is Sudan. Sudan had a military and they also had a military called the RSF, which is sort of like a militia that would do the dirty work. If you heard of Star four and the John Weed militia, the John Weed militia became the RSF, or, uh, I believe Rapid Security Forces and, uh, the current Civil War in Sudan is all about the Army saying, Hey, uh, RSF, you need to actually kind of come into the fold.

[00:12:34] And the RSF said, nah, we kind of wanna be independent.

[00:12:37] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. We covered that in episode 9 0 5. That was also an out of the loop episode on Sudan. The reason I think I had that little bit of knowledge about the dictators is we did, the Dictator's handbook is something I read for the show, episode 7 94, and I think Alistair Smith who came on the show, he, I think he was the one who talked about dictators want competing factions.

[00:12:55] Yeah. Even if it results in massive inefficiencies because. Part of that is it's less efficient to then go, Hey, we're all generals here. Why do we give that guy all of our money? What does that guy do again? Let's just kill that guy. And then we can split the pa. And it's like, oh, because that guy also has another army with another bunch of generals that aren't sitting in this room.

[00:13:15] They want to kill us too. So maybe we just, and the dictator's kind of there with his arm, arm's length army over here, arm's length army over there. And he is like, let me juggle you two guys and keep you from killing each other. So they, he makes it so you need them. They almost need the dictator in order to avoid imploding.

[00:13:30] It's diabolical, but it's quite clever. The problem is, it's fragile, right? That's kind of what we're hoping is the case with Iran. But again, this is more geopolitical than I wanted to get. I wanna talk about the embassy mysteriously explodes, or was it a consulate that mysteriously exploded? Do we know? I believe consulate is the

[00:13:46] Ryan McBeth: actual appropriate term.

[00:13:48] I think embassy is the mission. You have the ambassador that is the embassy, but the consulate is the physical building. Right. And technically it wasn't really the consulate, it was a building that was inside the consulate compound. But again, you know, most countries don't normally attack someone else's consulate that, no.

[00:14:08] You could say that blowing up an embassy or a consulate is a declaration of war. I think just recently, uh, Ecuador actually went into Mexico's embassy, which uh, is not something nations normally do.

[00:14:20] Jordan Harbinger: No, that was big news. Although it was eclipsed by the massive gas leak in the embassy, so it killed a bunch of Iranian military officers of various branches.

[00:14:29] Can you discuss who these people were? It was a really well-timed gas leak that was just a total freak accident that nobody claimed responsibility for and it killed some pretty important folks. Eh,

[00:14:38] Ryan McBeth: you're absolutely correct. I know that, uh, one person was the head of the ktz force. Uh, I believe it was General Muhammad Zahedi and a deputy of General Zahedi.

[00:14:49] Uh, so those are the two main people that Israel is probably going after, and most likely those people had something to do with assisting Hamas in October 7th. Mm-Hmm.

[00:14:59] Jordan Harbinger: That's kind of on brand for Israel. Right? Because when we had the Munich attacks, which were essentially, who did that? I don't even remember who did that.

[00:15:07] I know it was Palestinian. I believe it was the PLO. The PLO. Yeah, I think you're right. The Palestinian Liberation Organization, which was a back then strictly terrorism, they went and killed a bunch of the Israeli Olympic team in 1972. Was it in Munich? I believe so, yes. And Israel, basically, if there's a movie called Munich, which is actually really good, and Israel just spent the next, I think 20 plus years hunting those guys down in the safe houses where they were and killed all of them.

[00:15:36] You're absolutely correct. They don't tend to forget. No. And so they, they're gonna go after everybody who had anything to do with October 7th that's not already pink mist essentially at this point. And so Israel gets rid of these, these officers takes a couple of staffers with them, and that's when everybody's like, uh oh, that's a declaration of war at Iran can defend itself.

[00:15:56] And what happens after that? 'cause it gets a little bit confusing about why these counter attacks happened that were not super effective.

[00:16:05] Ryan McBeth: After that, nothing happened for about two weeks until Iran basically announced that they were going to attack Israel. Mm-Hmm. And they fired 350 weapons. I believe it was 195 drones, 110 ballistic missiles, 25 cruise missiles.

[00:16:21] It was a very strange attack, mainly because I ran fired off the drones, which could take about 10 hours to reach Israel. We're talking about Shahid, uh, one 30 ones, one 30 sixes, which are powered by a lawnmower w Ranch in essentially, right. They fired these drones off and they said, Hey, we just did this.

[00:16:39] They let everybody know, and they said, we consider this matter settled before the drones

[00:16:44] Jordan Harbinger: even hit. So it not only was it not a surprise attack, it was like, this is our mic drop. Whatever happens. But then what happens is. Jordan, the us I had nothing to do with it. The country of Jordan, just to be clear, the, the United States and Israel shot down like 99 plus, 99 point a half percent of these things.

[00:17:05] I mean, it was like, you're

[00:17:06] Ryan McBeth: absolutely correct, one or two hit. And we, we also have to include Saudi Arabia in that we have to include France in that we, a lot of our allies, uh, they took it upon themselves to help out with this mission. 'cause number one, it's good practice. You get good telemetry data and information as to what's going on.

[00:17:22] It's within no one's interest to allow Israel to be hit with ballistic missiles and cause casualty. So everyone seems to be afraid of a wider war. And also, in addition to that, the USS Eisenhower participated, their, uh, aircraft launched from, uh, their ship to participate in this attack, or at least the, um, command control of it.

[00:17:42] They also had the US s Carney, the USS Cari. This plucky little destroyer has been doing circles in the Red Sea and, uh, the Gulf of Aiden shooting down, uh, Houthis missiles. And they had one final mission. They, they certainly went out with a bang. I mean, that

[00:17:58] Jordan Harbinger: those guns are gonna need a refurb on that boat because they are just, they've gotten a lifetime worth of use in the past few months on that thing.

[00:18:07] Ryan McBeth: The Kearney should definitely win. Defensive Player of the Year. Uh, they've been named the Firing Missiles. Uh, I believe, uh, this was the first SM three kill of a ballistic missile ever. And the SM three is a, it's called the Standard Missile. It's fired from the, uh, from the US s Carney. But those, uh, those magazines must be getting pretty dry right now.

[00:18:25] I believe it was headed back to Florida, to their home port in Florida when this uh, happened. There was just one last, uh, they had to give it their all one last time.

[00:18:35] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, one last rep. It's kind of a bummer that they named it the Standard Missile three. You see all these other missiles with really cool names like Storm Shadow, and it's like, oh, what are we gonna call these Standard missile

[00:18:47] Ryan McBeth: three during the Gulf War?

[00:18:49] I mean, you couldn't have gotten any better. You had the Scud versus the Patriot. Mm-Hmm. You couldn't get a more perfect name. Right. And

[00:18:55] Jordan Harbinger: now we just have this like, Hey guys, we are out of ideas. Let's just call it the standard missile three for now. We'll think of something cool later on. Oh, you shipped them already?

[00:19:04] Well, that's what they're called then. In that case, that's what's printed on the box. So Okay. They, they shot down all the drones and Iran's like, fine, this is over. It seems like they also are on board with not wanting a wider conflict. It was really kind of entertaining reading the messages online.

[00:19:22] Iran's gonna destroy Israel and then nothing. Oh, this is such a bummer. Why aren't they doing anything? Oh, look at all this stuff. They launched, Israel's done for, oh, only one missile hit of airfield with nothing on it. Oh, okay. Well, they must have did that on purpose. And then of course, oh well cost Israel and the United States a bunch of money, which is like a 0.001% of one month of the defense budget or something like that.

[00:19:45] Whenever stuff like this happens. 'cause the numbers are so astronomical. And then fortunately, unfortunately, Israel's like, we're not done here. And I was just kinda like, you know, my opinion as a layman was it's kind of fortunate that you were able to destroy these officers. All it cost us was a, a bunch of money and target practice to down all these drones.

[00:20:05] Maybe we call it a win. And Israel was kinda like, not so fast. We're gonna take this one step further. And I originally wasn't even gonna record this 'cause I thought this is over with. And then the day I talked with you, it was like missiles headed from Israel to Iran and it's like, Hey, can you do this tomorrow?

[00:20:21] Ryan McBeth: Well that, can we record this tomorrow? I always love coming on your show. I, I you are, you have the best fans, you have the smartest fans. That's for darn short, that's for sure. I can tell you that. I think one of the reasons Israel had to do some sort of counterstrike was that one of the missiles fired from Iran landed near, and I might be pronouncing this wrong, uh, Neve team airbase, which is where Israel has their F 30 fives, which is a, is a steal fighter plane.

[00:20:47] Now what's interesting is that Neve team is about 11 miles or 17 kilometers for European listeners. 11 miles away is atrazine airbase. Which is, uh, 11 miles, 17 kilometers to the east. That's where Israel keeps their nuclear weapons if they have any. Mm-Hmm. So this might have been a way for Iran to say, Hey, we know where you're keeping your nuclear weapons that you don't, that you have, we can drop a weapon right on top of your airfield where you will load those missiles on.

[00:21:21] So they'll take 'em from, uh, hats em to ne team load 'em on F 30 fives and move toward targets from there. So that might've been Iran's way of saying, Hey, we know your secret and we can drop a missile here anytime we want. Now, Israel's response, assuming it was Israel, was actually kind of right. So what may or may not have happened, and this is why I said I'm, I'm glad people want to get in the loop on this, but I'm not even sure anybody really knows what happened a couple of nights ago.

[00:21:55] But here's what may have happened. Israel may have brought F 30 fives over, uh, Syria. They hit some radar sites in Syria on the way, and they end up in Iran, and they fired a ballistic missile called a Blue Sparrow. Now, these are ballistic missiles that kind of hang off the, the wings of these plays. It could have been NPH three, five, could have been NPH 15, not really sure.

[00:22:20] And Israel, of course, is insane, but the Blue Sparrow isn't a weapon that has a warhead. The blue sparrow is kind of like a decoy or a dummy missile. And these missiles are used to train operators and test missile defense systems. So Israel has a couple of missile defense systems. Everyone's heard of the Iron Dome, but that's a really short range system.

[00:22:43] There's another system called David Sling, which is a medium range system, and there's another system called Arrow two and Arrow three. So these weapons, these blue sparrows would be used or might be used to test the arrow twos and arrow threes. So they send a couple of, of F fifteens or perhaps F 30 fives over and they go vertical.

[00:23:05] And they launch these Blue Sparrow missiles and these blue Sparrow missiles fly in an arc and they head toward this air base. The Hassa aircraft manufacturing base, which believe it or not, had actually been built by Textron. Uh, that's where they used to build the bell, uh, two 14 helicopters that, uh, Iran had in the, in the seventies, back when they were an ally of the United States, absolutely when they were an ally.

[00:23:29] So we fired these unarmed missiles. We do it in the middle of the night, so there's probably not gonna be anyone at the air base. And we program these things to kinda land in the desert, just bang right up into the dirt. And it's a way of saying, Hey, we can also strike back at you, but we're not gonna put any warheads on these things.

[00:23:49] Now another thing that may or may not have happened was a drone attack maybe. Uh, Iran said that they had shot down three drones, or several drones, so that might be a lie. In fact, Iran said that Israel had launched toys, but it's certainly possible that Special Forces or Mossad or Iranians who are against the government could have launched these toy drones to do something, or even just to be launched and then shot down.

[00:24:18] Just as a way of saying, Hey, we have operatives in your country, and we can strike you anytime we want.

[00:24:28] Jordan Harbinger: You are listening to the Jordan Harbinger Show with our guest, Ryan Macbeth. We'll be right back. This episode is sponsored in part by SimpliSafe Spring Half Sprung. And what better way to embrace? I can't not think of Cmix a lot when I say that word. What better way to embrace the season than my kicking back and leaving your home security worries to SimpliSafe voted best home security system of 2024 by US News and World Report and praised by Newsweek for their stellar customer service.

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[00:27:13] Your words, your ideas, quilt. Mine just handles the heavy lifting so you're not posting like cheesy, inspirational quotes like you've seen those people on LinkedIn. It's awful. I decided to give Quilt Mind a try over the next few months on LinkedIn. You can follow my journey there. A lot of you already are.

[00:27:26] For me, success on LinkedIn would mean inspiring the business community with insights from our guests, expanding our audience a little bit, connecting with potential show sponsors and advertisers. I hope it'll open up more doors for company executives to connect with me for all kinds of business opportunities.

[00:27:40] So if you like what you see from me on LinkedIn, feel free to shoot them or me an email. Uh, you can hit them at Jordan, audience@quiltmind.com. I'm also happy to refer youJordan@jordanharbinger.com and they can get you started on your own LinkedIn campaign. I'm really digging what I'm seeing so far and I think this is a great tool for business professionals.

[00:27:57] Hey all. By the way, we've revamped our newsletter wee bit wiser. Instead of doing summaries of past episodes, we are going to reorient the newsletter around one super brief, practical takeaway. The idea is to give you something specific, something practical, something that'll have an immediate impact on your decisions, your psychology, your relationships in under two minutes.

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[00:28:27] Jordan harbinger.com/news is where you can find it. We're gonna be starting that up in the beginning of May, just a few weeks here. Now back to out the loop, Iran v Israel and Ryan Macbeth. Yeah, Iran actually said infiltrators had done whatever had gotten done in Isfahan, or Ishan, I think is the name of the Ishan, the city.

[00:28:49] It's just been interesting to see, right? Like you can see it sort of being deescalated. I originally was like, oh no, Israel, don't do anything that's gonna get the, everybody pissed off again. You know, we don't wanna escalate this conflict, but it really is kind of like, you know that game Battleship, it's like you strike right next to the ship.

[00:29:05] It's like they can see the ship and they're striking right next to it and they're like, look, we didn't hit it. But we didn't hit it on purpose. Iran, same thing. Hey guys, we're launching a bunch of pretty slow drones that are gonna take about 10 hours to get there. Okay? And then we are done. We're taking our ball and we're going home.

[00:29:22] 'cause we've done our thing. And then it's like they all got shot down and Iran is like, like we said, we're done here. And Israel's like, well, not so fast. We just wanna show you that. We also know where you keep your expensive stuff. We're not gonna blow it up, but we're just gonna put that right there so that you know that if you guys far around too much.

[00:29:39] What we put there next time is gonna be a massive explosion. It's gonna take out whatever your uranium refinement or whatever it is that they're doing over there and is fun. So this is hopefully kind of the end of it, but I don't know. What do you think? Because it seems like now everybody's said their peace, but who knows?

[00:29:58] Because now Israel's gonna go into Raha from what we understand. Correct.

[00:30:02] Ryan McBeth: That is most likely the next step. We don't know when that's going to happen. It probably won't happen this week because this week is the Jewish holiday Passover. Mm-Hmm. So probably what happened this week, but the longer they wait, uh, the more chances the world has to get angry at Israel, demand to cease fire.

[00:30:20] And the case of a ceasefire Hamas wins. So what we're probably going to see, if you want to talk about Rafa as we're going to see something that was very similar to, uh, the Battle of Fallujah or perhaps Mosul, where. Israel surround the entire city, and they're gonna drop leaflets and send out text messages and put broadcasts out on the radio.

[00:30:43] It says, if you are a non-combatant, get out. And they'll probably put them to the left of Con Eunice In Gaza, there is a, this big, uh, farmer's field area. It's, uh, kind of between, um, can't remember the darn name of the town that it is to the, uh, west of the city of Kunis. There's uh, some farmer's fields and they're probably gonna tell people, okay, go over there.

[00:31:10] You're gonna be safe there. Women and children can leave and any man leaving is gonna be biometrically scanned to see if you're in a database. They'll probably use a, a swipe on their hands as well to check their hands for explosives or residue. Wow. Oh yeah.

[00:31:24] Jordan Harbinger: Oh yeah. That's what I would do. But how do they do, how do, do they go into Rafa and let people through a protected, what they would do is create a cordon.

[00:31:32] Now,

[00:31:32] Ryan McBeth: ideally cordon. Yeah. Israel should go to this farmer's field and, um, darn it, I can't remember the darn name of it. It was Almas. Alsa. Okay. So between Con Unis and Almas is this large multiple kilometers of farmer's fields. So what Israel should do, and hopefully they will do this, is set up camps there where people can get food and shelter and medical attention, or at least let NGOs, non government organizations set up camps there.

[00:32:00] That way people can get treatment and live and, and eat. Uh, while Israel conducts US operation, they have to go out through a court on, meaning there's certain areas that people can go out through. If you're a male, they have biometric scanners, they're gonna check your eyes and they'll also take a cloth and they'll, uh, I don't know if you've ever dealt with this at the airport, where the TSA, they put a little piece of cloth on a wand and they wipe down

[00:32:23] Jordan Harbinger: your

[00:32:23] Ryan McBeth: suitcase.

[00:32:23] I

[00:32:24] Jordan Harbinger: get that all the time, actually. And I don't know if it's just me or if everybody gets it, I get it all the time.

[00:32:29] Ryan McBeth: So sometimes they do that, right? It might be random or it might be targeted right. So they'll, they'll put it on a cloth and they'll stick it to the machine. The machine will analyze that cloth for explosives.

[00:32:39] So if you're a male and you have explosive residue on your hands or gunpowder on your hands, you're getting pulled aside for further questioning. Everybody else, women, children go through and that'll pretty much ensure that everybody else left in the city of Rafa is a combatant. Now, 10% won't leave, 10% of the people are not gonna leave.

[00:32:58] That is just no matter what happens, even when, uh, even when the National Guard goes to people during a hurricane and says, Hey, you really need to leave. About 10% of people don't. The actual great way of countering that, by the way, is to hand them a Sharpie marker and say, write your social security number on your body parts.

[00:33:14] That way we can identify you later. Mm-Hmm. But that's, that's kind of an aside there.

[00:33:19] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. Wait, interesting. I always wondered what those people are thinking when it's like, your house is in the middle of the hurricane zone. Everybody's gotta evacuate. Why are you still here? I ain't leaving. Okay, but you're probably gonna die.

[00:33:30] Some

[00:33:31] Ryan McBeth: people are afraid of looting and, uh, you know, some people, if nothing bad has ever happened to you, it might be very difficult for you to understand that something very bad can happen to you under the right set of circumstances.

[00:33:42] Jordan Harbinger: That is true, but it's like jedediah. Nobody wants your black and white tv.

[00:33:46] Nobody, nobody wants it. Nobody wants your bug bed mattress, man. I understand you don't wanna leave, but yeah, more likely it's what you said. People who have not had horrible things happen to them, don't understand that horrible things can happen to them. That's when I got kidnapped the first time in Mexico.

[00:34:04] I remember thinking, this isn't a kidnapping. I've never been kidnapped before. And then I had to be like, that's a really dumb counter argument. This not being a really bad thing right now. The counter that this hasn't happened before is not really, doesn't really make sense. It's kinda like saying, I've never gotten shot before, so I can't get shot now.

[00:34:21] It's like, no, no, you can absolutely get shot right now if you are staring down the barrel of a gun. So yeah, you're right, it's an aside, but you gotta wonder who's in a war zone going, I'm not leaving. It's like this is a level of delusion that I, I don't know whether to just be in awe of or what, it's just shocking.

[00:34:38] Ryan McBeth: You're also dealing with people who, uh, I mean the naba, the catastrophe. Yeah. When, uh, many of the Palestinians were kicked outta their homes, I believe, uh, only one third of the people in Gaza lived there originally. Everybody else fled there because either the Arabs kicked them out or the Jews kicked them out.

[00:34:56] Mm-Hmm. So being removed from your home is, it is a genuine fear for a lot of Palestinians. Yeah. And in fact, if you go to some homes, they have a key. Hanging in a, in a picture frame. And this was the key to the house that we had. And one day we're gonna go back to that house in Shaah. Ah, right.

[00:35:15] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah.

[00:35:15] Ryan McBeth: So the idea of leaving your house is, is very difficult.

[00:35:18] And there also might be people who don't wanna leave 'cause they're elderly. You know, look, I've lived my life. If I die here in Shaah, I die. There might also be terrorists who do not want people to leave because it is within their best interest to cause a humanitarian crisis and to cause civilian casualties, that is a horrible thing to fake, that there will be people who don't want people to leave.

[00:35:39] We need you to stay here and die. You'll die of Shaheed. You'll go right to heaven, so it's okay. Don't worry about it. But that's not something that a lot of westerners can really understand, both being kicked out of your homes and the concept of, well, you know what, if you die, it's God's will and you'll go right to heaven.

[00:35:57] But it's not God's will. I'm trying to

[00:35:58] Jordan Harbinger: leave right now, and you're keeping me here. It's your will. It's not God's will that That is the issue with Hamas. Yeah. That is the issue with Hamas. Yes. Like also, Hey man, guys, I'm Christian because there's tons of Arab Christians, Palestinian Christians like, Hey, there are, I'm Christian.

[00:36:12] I don't need to I, what do you mean, Shahid? No, I'm, no, thank you. I'm here for a few more Christmases if I can get the hell outta here. I do feel, of course, horrible for this whole situation is absolutely terrible. Do we know what Israel's plan is in Rafa? I mean, after they try to evacuate it. I mean, it's gonna be very difficult to do that, but.

[00:36:31] Are they just gonna go house to house fighting Hamas? Is that the idea?

[00:36:33] Ryan McBeth: Yes and no. They'll, they will go house to house, but they probably won't be as surgical as they could be. Because remember where, this is the last stretch. I've said this before, that a dead Palestinian can vote for the prime minister of Israel, but the mother of a dead Israeli soldier can.

[00:36:52] Mm. So if you have a choice between, you know, hey, there's a house, there's a machine gun in that house, there might be people in it too, which IDF soldier wants to be the last one to die in this operation. Right. So now if you have a choice like, Hey, we got already, we gotta a artillery support. We can call it a JDA strike.

[00:37:10] How likely are you to call on that JDA strike?

[00:37:12] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah. You know, that'd be pretty darn likely. It's safer for you. It might be pretty darn likely. Ugh, this is such a mess. This conflict. It's really gross. Like I understand. I. Both sides in, in so many ways, and I understand Israel has to respond to October 7th, but man, it's so difficult to wrap my mind around the number of civilians that are dying as a result of this.

[00:37:32] Anyway, that, that's a whole tangent we don't need to get into, but it's just, this is gonna be so horrible. It's

[00:37:38] Ryan McBeth: tough. It's tough because, you know, when the whole thing started, I had said that the reason that Hamas went grabbed these sausages was, Hey, we're gonna parcel these guys out for the next five years.

[00:37:49] There was a gentleman, uh, Gil Hatchett, I might be pronouncing his name wrong. He was an Israeli soldier who was captured, I wanna say, back in, uh, 2006 or so, and he was held prisoner until 2011. He was an Israeli soldier that was at a checkpoint. Hamas came through a tunnel, they killed a couple of his friends.

[00:38:09] They grabbed him, dragged him back to the tunnel, and he was held hostage for five years. And a huge embarrassment to the Israeli government. And I think these guys said. Uh, I think that Hamas said we're gonna grab 200 people or so. We're gonna hold 'em hostage for the next five years as we'll be tripping over themselves.

[00:38:28] And when Mah Abbas finally dies, we'll see. We'll give you back all of the hostages. And as long as you make us, uh, as long as you, uh, appoint us the rulers of the West Bank, we'll give 'em all back. Mm-Hmm. However, what they did not expect was for Israel to take a sledgehammer and hit them in the face.

[00:38:46] Right. So I, I've said that, uh, one of the miscalculations, at least on Hamas' side, is that Hamas thought Israel would be, be doing coin counterinsurgency. Um, and they were prepared for a counterinsurgency operation. We will fight them one by one. They come in with the helicopters, we'll shoot at them, we'll move, we'll fight this insurgency against them.

[00:39:05] And instead Israel did the LIS go or large scale combat operations where they just went in with a steamroll and just destroyed everything and Hamas went, oh, okay. Was not expecting that.

[00:39:14] ?: Mm-Hmm.

[00:39:15] Ryan McBeth: I mean, just a couple of days ago there was talk of a ceasefire and well, Israel said, oh, give us 40 prisoners.

[00:39:21] And unfortunately Hamas can't find 40 living prisoners.

[00:39:24] Jordan Harbinger: Right. Whether that's because Israel has killed them inadvertently or more like, I mean, there's probably some of that, but it also seems like this whole October 7th raid was not just Hamas surgically going and grabbing people and bringing 'em back.

[00:39:37] Right. I mean, you have reports from hostages that they were kept with seemingly quite random Palestinian families in their house.

[00:39:44] Ryan McBeth: That is one thing. And it's also possible that other, I know one gentleman who, uh, works in an NGO. He works in non-governmental organization, Paul Wagner. He fought in Ukraine and when, uh, this war occurred, oh, after October 7th, he left Ukraine and hooked up with an NGO.

[00:40:01] And now he is working every day tirelessly to feed Palestinians as part of an organization that helps support World Central Kitchen, which we could talk about that one if you'd like as well. Yeah, that's a good,

[00:40:12] Jordan Harbinger: yeah, let's do

[00:40:13] Ryan McBeth: that. This guy works every single day to feed these people. One of the things that he said is, um, how these people were not prepared for this absolute onslaught that they were facing, and there just wasn't the strategic reserves to feed people when an, you know, if an incident like this happened.

[00:40:32] So

[00:40:33] Jordan Harbinger: this guy, Paul Wagner, fascinating guy. You mentioned World Central Kitchen. Can we talk about that? That was this like massively horrible. I'll say mistake, accident. Some people don't think it was, tell us what happened.

[00:40:45] Ryan McBeth: So the uh, world Central Kitchen is an organization, it's owned by Jose Andres. He actually owns a number of restaurants in Washington DC I've eaten at them.

[00:40:54] He's an incredible guy. So you're basically an expert. He, he is on Jose Andres, I having eaten his food, some of his food. Yeah. He is a humanitarian and a real humanitarian. He doesn't care who is hungry, he will feed them. And he has operated in Ukraine, he has operated in many conflict zones, even inside the US After a hurricane, he will set up shop and, uh, world Central Kitchen was operating in a convoy of three trucks and they were moving to a warehouse where they unloaded a certain amount of food and they had already set up what's called the deconfliction notice.

[00:41:25] So World Central Kitchen, any NGO, any non-governmental organization coordinates with the IDF and they tell 'em, here's where we're going. Here's how long we're gonna be there. Here's the route we're taking. Here's what our trucks look like. Here's how many personnel we have. Here's how long we're gonna be in each location.

[00:41:42] There's actually a website that Israel has, and you upload that information. Now whether they get that information is a different story, and I think that's what might've happened. So these trucks, they went to a warehouse maybe, or maybe not. There was a Hamas or some sort of militia there, some sort of armed gang.

[00:42:02] Those armed gang members may have entered the same warehouse. So when those trucks left, the drone operators were looking and all they know is that there were armed gang members who entered this one house and then these trucks leave. And I don't think anybody looked at the actual paperwork that said, Hey, world Central Kitchen is operating in this area.

[00:42:21] Mm-hmm. Now another problem on these World Central Kitchen trucks, on the sides and on the top of the truck, were the world. Were central kitchen logos as stickers. Stickers are great during the daytime. When you're traveling at night and you're using night vision, it's hard to see a sticker. Stickers don't tend to show up all that well on infrared.

[00:42:40] So the Israelis saw those trucks leave. They tailed those trucks, they went up their chain of command. Hey, we saw a bunch of guys go to a warehouse. Trucks left that warehouse. Do we have permission to engage? Yes. And they engaged those three trucks with drone drop munitions. Most likely hell fire missiles.

[00:42:55] They killed seven World Central Kitchen employees. Now, what they probably should have done was coordinate with the Israelis and use what are called infrared strobes. Think of them as little strobe lights that only operate in the infrared frequency.

[00:43:07] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah.

[00:43:07] Ryan McBeth: And every day they might put the different pattern of strobes on top of their vehicles.

[00:43:12] And that way the IDF knows, okay, that's this particular unit or that's this particular NGO. They have this particular strobe code. We know that they're okay, but a number of, uh, Israelis were fired over that because they just didn't follow procedure and actually take a look at their documents and go, oh, yeah, we shouldn't fire this.

[00:43:31] Convoy could be World Central Kitchen.

[00:43:36] Jordan Harbinger: This is the Jordan Harbinger show with our guest Ryan Macbeth. We'll be right back. This episode is also sponsored by Workout. I've been a fan of Workout for years, not just because my friend Curtis founded the company, but because it has significantly impacted my health and fitness journey.

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[00:45:55] Now for the rest of my conversation with Ryan Macbeth, this is such a tragedy and I am, I'm active in the Palestine subreddit, which is a Reddit forum, but also the Israel subreddit, which is of course very active these days, both of them. And it was really interesting because of course the Palestine subreddit is full of people who are very pro-Palestine, the Israel subreddits full of people who are very pro-ISIS Israel.

[00:46:19] After this convoy was hit, you couldn't tell which message was from which side subreddit. Yeah. Everybody was so horrified by this. Even inside Israel, it was just like, how did this happen? I want blood for this. And I was like, oh, they're really angry over there in the palace. Nope, this is the Israeli subres.

[00:46:37] I mean, they were just really, really, really upset about this. Understandably. I mean, it's a terrible look. But also for God's sake, I mean, how does a mistake like this happen? It's just absolutely tragic. Doesn't do with justice.

[00:46:49] Ryan McBeth: It doesn't. There were a num, so I always pronounce this incorrectly, but there is a term in in Hebrew Yaba, ah, don't worry about it.

[00:46:58] Right. kba yba. So I could easily see someone from the IDF going like, okay, yeah, we have it. We have your book. Don't, don't worry about it. We have the route. Everything's fine. And just one person doesn't talk to the other. Deconfliction is hard. Russia found out how hard deconfliction was over the skies of Ukraine, where they're shooting down their own planes.

[00:47:20] 'cause they don't know which plane is where. We still screw it up. People in the JS OC in the joint command center in Qatar who are controlling missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is very difficult when you have all these air assets flying and stuff on the ground. Imagine spinning plates, but some plates are up in the air, some plates are on the ground.

[00:47:40] You have to know where all this stuff is. However, why does Ryan Macbeth have to come up with the idea of, Hey, why don't we put IR strobes on top of our vehicles?

[00:47:50] Jordan Harbinger: It's funny you thought of that because I thought, how did they not see IR strobes on the vehicles? That was the first thing I thought of. I feel like they must have had that and still something went wrong.

[00:48:00] Right, because they just had stickers. The closest I've come to the military is training guys in, uh, the Rangers and stuff like that. Basically giving a keynote speech and running some drills. Yeah, like that's the closest I've come to the military. I was in the marine reserves at college, but like, that doesn't really care.

[00:48:15] That's just you getting yelled at a bunch. And so this is not so novel that somebody like me should have thought of it. So I refuse to believe that that wasn't already, it just must have so many drawbacks that they didn't do it right.

[00:48:26] Ryan McBeth: Either that or they didn't care. Geez, it always worked before. Well, we, we haven't had a problem yet, so it's not a problem until it is.

[00:48:34] Mm-Hmm. If you're kind of under that mindset or under the mindset of, you know what, this is one of the bad things about Israel losing the information war. It might be a situation where they go like, look, if we accidentally strike an aid workers vehicles, is the world gonna hate us more? That's kind of a horrible calculus.

[00:48:50] Right. That's interesting. Like, uh, you know, look, we could spend all this extra time. Making sure these eight vehicles are okay so they don't get hit or we cannot do that. It probably won't happen. And if it does, what's the worst that can happen? The world hates us more. The world already hates us. Are they gonna hate us harder?

[00:49:06] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, that's right. We're in last place already. Yeah. I mean, what they can't afford is to be hated so much. The United States says we are no longer gonna back you. But I'm wondering what you think is the likelihood of this. Because you know, you hear these murmurs like Biden, we need to sanction Israel. It worked for South Africa.

[00:49:24] Right? We arms embargo and then boycott everything and yada. And it's like, okay, probably not gonna happen. On the other hand, if you blow up enough aid workers trying to deliver food to Gaza, the pressure starts to mount pretty quick.

[00:49:38] Ryan McBeth: That's that's a tough one. And it's not just a lot of people who don't understand how the military works, just think that Israel has a blank check.

[00:49:45] And whenever they want more, hell fires, they just write up a check. They America or America ships over a bunch of hell fires. It doesn't really work like that. Now, one thing that we do have with Israel is a symbiotic relationship in the sense that we actually bought some of their trophy systems, and a trophy is almost like an iron dome for a tank.

[00:50:04] These trophy systems shoot down incoming anti-tank muscles. We bought, I think about a hundred of these trophy systems, and we installed them on M1 tanks, and those tanks are in Germany. Right now. We're getting telemetry data for how their missile systems work, shooting down incoming missiles. So we help them develop technology.

[00:50:24] They help us develop technology, so actually creating some sort of embargo or sanctions wouldn't necessarily be within our best interest defense wise. And also if you can withhold weapons, you have a lot more control over somebody than if you don't. If you just sanction somebody and say, we're not gonna give you weapons anymore, then you just totally lost control over those people.

[00:50:45] That's true. As long as you are holding that carrot, dangling that carrot off the stick, you can say, listen, real armies, make sure they have a humanitarian plan. So before you go into Rafa, you need to set up ts in that area between Kahan, Eunice and Almas Holly, and make sure those camps are staffed with people that have food.

[00:51:08] You have, uh, good hi hygiene, latrines and uh, a place for people to sleep. We're not gonna release this, that, or the other until you do that thing. So as long as you, you have some sort of thing to offer, then your partner might

[00:51:23] Jordan Harbinger: actually

[00:51:24] Ryan McBeth: listen.

[00:51:24] Jordan Harbinger: I know the EU and the United States sanctioned Iran Moore as well after this latest sort of back and forth.

[00:51:31] I am no Iran simp. People on this show will know that I am not a fan of the Islamic regime. I love, in fact, I should be really clear, I iran's like the top of my list in places I want to visit. However, I am not going there until the Ayatollah, the last ayatollah has taken his last breath and is lowered into the ground.

[00:51:48] Right? I might get there just in time to throw a couple handfuls of dirt on that casket or whatever, but it sort of baffles me why we needed to pile on. Right? Isn't the Israel Iran thing kind of done? Why do the EU and the USA have to be like Yeah, and throw a little bit of spite after it? It doesn't.

[00:52:06] Make a ton of sense to me. I am actually not quite sure what else we can sanction. Yeah, that's the other thing. What are we tightening the screws on? This is

[00:52:13] Ryan McBeth: already, yeah. I think the only stuff we really allow it is humanitarian aid anyway. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know if you, are you familiar with the Apple computer stores in, uh, in Iran?

[00:52:22] No. Are they real? They're fake, right? No, they're fake. So I, a couple of months ago, I, I made a lot of, uh, made a lot of Iranian. I, I had no idea I had so many Iranian fans when Mical Manni was, was murdered by the religious police or the morality police in Iran. I. I had all of these Iranians write me, 'cause they were protesting on the streets.

[00:52:44] They said, Ryan, help us fight back. Teach us how to make a bomb. They were everywhere. I got a ton of those too. We need your voice, right? Make a yeah, make a, make a bomb. That was, that was a large effort. I don't know how to make a bomb and if I know how to make a bomb, you don't know how to make a bomb. If you don't know how to make a bomb, you shouldn't be making a bomb because there's no such thing as a bomb maker who got a B.

[00:53:01] Right? You're grade at pass fail. That's true. Yes. It is a pass fail class. Don't be naked up a hot in your mom's kitchen. Right. These Iranians would contact me and uh, the best I could do is actually I released the Iranian police radio spectrum. So yeah, you wanna make a jam or I can help you do that, right?

[00:53:16] So I didn't really realize how many Iranian fans I had. And one of these kids, he wants to study computer science, and he said to me, Ryan, should I buy a Mac or a pc? And I said, Mac, you can buy a Mac. He's like, yeah. They have these Apple stores. They look like Apple stores. They dressed them up to look like Apple stores.

[00:53:34] They have the, the white, the natural wood tables, and they have everything laying out on the tables. Wow. People will travel to Qatar and Turkey and they'll buy iPhones, and they'll buy iPads and they'll buy Macs. They bring 'em back to Iran and they set them up in their Apple store just like they're a real Apple store, but they're not.

[00:53:52] Wow. Capitalism. That's how badly Iranians want

[00:53:56] Jordan Harbinger: to be Western. I see that all the time. My show actually has quite a large footprint of Iranian fans. It's like a, not a double digit percentage, but a large single digit percentage of the audience just happens to be listening from Iran, which is highly unusual.

[00:54:09] And that's, whenever I say this on the show, I always get messages like It's more than that because we all use VPNs. It's more than that. We all use VPNs to say we're in Canada, the United States or the uk, so could even be a double digit percentage of the audience, which is shocking actually, because one, this show is in English.

[00:54:25] I mean, Iranians must speak really good English, especially if they're in large cities. Two, this is one of those countries where it's really easy to conflate the people with the government, and it's kind of, it's really not. You know, when you go to North Korea, everyone's pretty on board with Kim Jong-Un.

[00:54:40] But when you talk to Iranians, who are even the ones that are in Iran, they're like, hell no. These Ayatollahs are insane. Screw these guys. The government's insane. And they'll say things like, we are normal. Look at us. This is a party at my house. And what you see is a bunch of teenagers drinking beer and wine hanging out, playing mu.

[00:54:59] You couldn't tell, aside from the occasional hijab that this was not a college party in Indiana.

[00:55:06] Ryan McBeth: You really couldn't. Now, one of the best movies I've ever seen, it was called the Iran Job, and it was about an American basketball player, was never quite good enough to make the NBA, but he got a chance to play in Iran.

[00:55:19] At one point in the movie, this is a documentary. This film grew falling. At one point in the movie, he wanted to get a Christmas tree. These Iranians, they, they didn't really understand the concept of a Christmas tree, but my God, shopkeeper went to shopkeeper to help this guy try to fight a Christmas tree.

[00:55:34] It's funny, it was heartwarming seeing that. I think they are some of the warmest darn people.

[00:55:39] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah, I agree. I mean, it's again, top of my list of countries. I would love to visit a little bit. Scared to do it right now. Yeah. Given shows like this that I make, I don't know how much they would like. You're a journalist.

[00:55:48] No, no. I'm a podcaster. It's kinda like a journalist. Only I have no qualifications and some of it is talking out of my ass. Oh, okay. Well, you're still going to prison with the other journalists, so maybe you can learn some more of your craft inside. You are a spy. I know we're running up on time here. I see a lot of cope online, like Iran should just finally destroy Israel.

[00:56:08] What do you think of that? I mean, Israel is, we're doing wink, wink, nudge, nudge. Maybe a nuclear power. But you mentioned earlier, more importantly, Iran just doesn't have an expeditionary army. Right. Which means they can't fight outside of Iran. Correct.

[00:56:23] Ryan McBeth: So both I and Israel have short arms and short legs.

[00:56:27] They can't bring stuff to the fight. And once they get to the fight, they can't sustain. So you've heard that term. What if they had a war but nobody came? Right. And it was a popular door in the seventies, right? Or Vietnam. What if they had a war but nobody came? What if they had a war and nobody could actually get there?

[00:56:46] Could you imagine Mexico trying to invade like Ecuador? All right, well, how so if, if Iran actually wanted to fight a war with Israel? All right. Well, they would have to go through Syria. They'd have to go through Iraq, they'd have to go through Syria. Those two countries might have something to say about mass divisions of troops traveling through their country.

[00:57:07] Right? Then once they get to Israel, they're gonna have to actually sustain and feed those troops. And that's a really tough thing to do when you're giving your artesh seven rounds of ammunition a year. Right. So if you wanna talk about a seaboard invasion, I ran as maybe, uh, seven, um, amphibious troop ships, you know, ships that can actually perform an amphibious landing, and by the time they got outta the Persian Gulf, they would be sunk.

[00:57:34] Right. That's, uh, and Israel, they don't have any expeditionary capability to go much further than Lebanon, Southern Lebanon, if that, you know, a lot of it, it just comes down and I don't believe they have a single, uh, their navy doesn't have a single amphibious assault ship. And why, right. Who are they invading?

[00:57:52] Right. Israel is a mostly defensive army with some minor. Expeditionary capability, uh, near their borders. So you can say you're having a war all you want, but a war might actually be tossing missiles and cyber attacks at each other. It, it won't actually involve physical troops fighting on the ground because how do you get there?

[00:58:12] And once you get there, how do you sustain?

[00:58:14] Jordan Harbinger: It seems like Iran is also really tough to, even the United States, I, I would say, would have a really tough time with Iran 'cause there's it's mountains galore. I know. The terrain is crazy. Yeah. Iran, if they are gonna overthrow the despotic, ayatollah, crazy kooky regime, it's really gotta come from inside and it's gotta be like a lot of people gotta be on board with that.

[00:58:35] In order for that to fall.

[00:58:36] Ryan McBeth: It is, uh, we could probably sink the Iranian navy in an afternoon. Yeah. That wouldn't be so much of an issue. What was that operation

[00:58:43] Jordan Harbinger: where we kind of already did that

[00:58:45] Ryan McBeth: once? Oh, that was, uh, oh my goodness. It was during the, uh, the 1980s. It was, uh, oh my goodness. I cannot remember.

[00:58:53] Oh, it's so often that I hear this operation. Praying mantis. Praying mantis. Yes. We destroyed some of their oil platforms

[00:59:00] Jordan Harbinger: that they were using April 18th, 1988. So we just passed the, uh, anniversary of that. The operations goals were to neutralize surveillance posts on gas and oil separation platforms, sync, something called the lon, which I assume is a, it's a frigate Iranian frigate and avoid civilian.

[00:59:17] Casualties and minimize environmental effects, which I'm surprised to see there in the eighties. Like, ah, we should probably care about not dumping a bunch of oil in the water. They actually did, that was like, they sunk a huge percentage of the Iranian navy in one day and that was in the eighties.

[00:59:30] Ryan McBeth: So one of the things that Iran has is they have entire squadrons of fast attack boats.

[00:59:36] Think of, of a cigarette boat. Like a cartel cigarette boat. Yeah. And they'll just strap two anti-ship missiles on the cigarette boat. Irene is really good at doing things on the cheap. Now, they might not be able to afford a large Fri forget, I think they have a couple large fts, but I don't believe any of them are new.

[00:59:55] But they can pump out these small, fast attack boats that are very difficult to hit. And if you do shoot some ordinance at 'em, you're firing a $5 million missile at a cigarette boat that costs $250,000 maybe. Maybe the missiles, both missiles, both of the ordinance on those boats probably cost more than the actual boat.

[01:00:15] You have a lot of targets out there, you can have these swarms where you have multiple ships coming at you. So it might actually be, uh, I have to take that a back, it might actually be harder to sink the entire Iranian navy in one day if we're talking about the cigarette boats as well.

[01:00:29] Jordan Harbinger: Yeah.

[01:00:29] Ryan McBeth: But, uh, Iran is so

[01:00:30] Jordan Harbinger: good at doing stuff on the cheap, either way, not a conflict that Israel can handle, and not a conflict that Iran could also handle.

[01:00:37] So we're not worried about these two. Yeah. Although if Israel has nukes, which again, like, you know, we kind of know that they do, that would go a long way. We obviously hope for, we, we don't have any nuclear escalation. Yeah. Because that's, that's the whole thing about quote unquote destroying Israels. Like they're not, that's not going to happen.

[01:00:53] Right. If it gets close to. Hey, we're being invaded by seven armies on each side. They're just gonna drop bombs on the capitals of those countries doing that. Correct?

[01:01:02] Ryan McBeth: Yes. I, I could see that. I also, one of the other issues with a lot of those armies is that if you, you know, they say Israel's surrounded by adversaries, and that's sort of, for the most part, the Jordanians, at least the rulers, the Jordanian king, they're very western.

[01:01:17] Their military is not going to evade Israel. The Egyptians, their military is more of a for-profit industry these days. The, uh, if you ever, if you wanna do a show above the Egyptian military, it's a fascinating military. They own like soda bottling plants, and they have their own, um, really? Oh, absolutely.

[01:01:34] They're building a, a new governmental center, a new capital that's think about 40 miles away from Cairo out in the middle of the desert. Their military headquarters is actually larger than the Pentagon. It's gonna be larger than the Pentagon. The, um, Egyptian army is basically a, um, for-profit industry.

[01:01:51] So you don't necessarily want to go to war or profit. What else do you have? Syria. Syria is a basket case, right? They can barely defend themselves. You have, uh, Lebanon. All right, well, Lebanon, for the most part, the military and Lebanon is busy trying to keep the peace. They're not necessarily anti-Israeli, Hezbollah.

[01:02:09] They're kind of like their own military. They might be able to invade Israel, but they certainly wouldn't be able to hold any ground. They wouldn't be able to sustain as well. So what other countries do you have? Iraq, it'd be a tough time getting there. Saudi Arabia, same thing. So you could have that scenario of seven nations invade Israel, but these days all those other seven nations are occupied and for the most part, they don't have expeditionary armies.

[01:02:33] They're all what are called palace guard armies, like you alluded to before, how the function of the army is to keep the ruler in power.

[01:02:41] Jordan Harbinger: Ryan, thank you very much. This is, we're probably gonna end up doing something else 'cause I, I feel like this conflict is gonna get messier before it gets better. What do you think?

[01:02:48] I

[01:02:49] Ryan McBeth: hope not, but I love coming on the show. I always appreciate you reaching out to me.

[01:02:55] Jordan Harbinger: You are about to hear a preview of the Jordan Harbinger show with Lieutenant Colonel Oliver North on who he sees as America's number one adversary today. And why.

[01:03:04] Oliver North: Nicaraguan resistance starting in 1980, growing all over the place.

[01:03:09] They were cut off by the Congress of the United States in 1984 with what was called the Boland Amendment. No funds made available by this act, which was the National Defense Authorization Act may be used for the purposes or which would've the effect of conducting military or paramilitary action against the government of Nicaragua.

[01:03:29] Okay, so the CIA was taken outta the business. They turned to me and said, find a way to support them. One of the lawyers for the hearing said to me, the day you got fired at the White House had to be the worst day of your life. I said, oh, no sir. The worst days of my life were Marines died in my arms.

[01:03:44] Jordan Harbinger: For more on how Oliver North makes decisions in high pressure situations and what it's like to dodge an assassination attempt, check out episode 5 0 3 on the Jordan Harbinger show.

[01:03:57] Thanks again to Ryan for coming on the show. I don't know, did World War II start in 2014? I guess Time will tell All things. Ryan Macbeth will be in the show notes@jordanharbinger.com. He's over there. Ryan macbeth.substack.com also will link to his YouTube channel in the show notes, transcripts in the show notes as well.

[01:04:13] Advertisers deals, discount codes, and ways to support the show, all at Jordan harbinger.com/deals. Please consider supporting those who support the show. Don't forget about our six minute networking course. I didn't do a plug for it in this episode, but y'all have heard the show before. Uh, and you know what that course is about.

[01:04:28] That's over@sixminutenetworking.com. I'm at Jordan Harbinger on both Twitter and Instagram, or just connect with me on LinkedIn. I'd love talking with you there too. This show is created, an association with Podcast one. My team is Jen Harbinger, Jace Sanderson, Robert Fogarty and Gabriel Mizrahi. Remember, we rise by lifting others.

[01:04:46] The fee for this show is you share it with friends. When you find something useful or interesting. The greatest compliment you can give us is to share the show with those you care about. If you know somebody who's interested in current events, wants a little bit of clarity on Iran, Israel, the whole recent events surrounding that, definitely share this episode with them.

[01:05:01] In the meantime, I hope you apply what you hear on the show so you can live what you learn, and we'll see you next time.

[01:05:09] Adam Carolla and Dr. Drew: Hey, buddy. Hey buddy. What's going on, man? Hi guy. Yeah, yeah, the team Loveline, man. You guys remember us from back in the day? Well, we're doing a pod and we're doing it every day, and we've been doing it for a while.

[01:05:22] And if you, if I hear one more time, people say, God, I loved you and Adam together on Loveline. And I'm like, yeah, yeah. We're doing a podcast. Will you please just join us at the Adam and Dr. Drew Show, please at adam, dr drew show.com. What's a great show? Come on now. Only on podcast, Juan. That's us, Adam and Dr.

[01:05:37] Drew Show, just like the old days doctor's orders. Oh, oh man. You're funny. Yep. All right. Let's go save some babies. Let's do it.